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“It seems to me, I must say, that the sole explanation is merely that my patient and the Count Palatine of Illyria are not one and the same person.”

“Nonsense, Watson. The likeness is clear beyond doubt, and nor is the explanation in any way obscure. It is perfectly plain that the man glimpsed at a distance by the crowd in Illyria is a double for the Count Palatine. The situation there, you know, is decidedly grave. There is the most dangerous unrest. If it were widely known that the Count was not at the helm in his country, the republican element would undoubtedly make an attempt to seize power, an attempt, let me tell you, that would in all likelihood be successful. However, you and I know that the Count is seriously ill and is living in Hertfordshire, under your excellent care, my dear Watson. So the solution is obvious. With the connivance of his close circle the Count has arranged for a substitute to make occasional public appearances in his stead in circumstances under which he will not easily be identified.”

“Yes, I suppose you must be right, Holmes,” I said. “It certainly seems a complex and extraordinary business though. Yet your account does appear to connect all the various elements.”

“It connects them indeed,” Holmes replied. “But I think for the time being we can assure ourselves that all is well. Do me the kindness, however, doctor, to let me know as soon as there is any question of the Count becoming fit enough to resume his full powers.”

It was, in fact, no later than the following week that I was able to give Holmes the reassuring news he had asked for. I had found my patient very far along the road to recovery, and though, not wishing to let him know that Holmes had penetrated his secret, I had not said to him that quite soon he would be ready to travel, I had left his bedside with that thought in my mind. In consequence I went from the station at Baker Street on my return directly to our old rooms.

“He is distinctly better then?” Holmes asked me.

“Very much so, I am happy to say. The lassitude that originally gave me cause for anxiety has almost completely passed away.”

“Bad. Very bad, Watson.”

“But surely, Holmes …”

“No, Watson, I tell you if the Count’s enemies should gain any inkling of the fact that he is likely to be able to return to Illyria in the near future, they will stop at nothing to make sure that he never crosses the Channel.”

“But, Holmes, how can they know that he is not in Illyria? You yourself showed me that extract from The Times.”

“I dare say, Watson. Yet an illusion of that sort cannot be kept up indefinitely. No doubt the conspirators watch every appearance the supposed Count makes upon the Palace balcony. At any time some small error on the part of the substitute may give the game away. Very possibly that error has been already made and suspicions have been aroused. Remember that I myself was not the only spy you caught down in Hertfordshire a fortnight ago.”

“The gipsy, Holmes? But I thought he was no more after all than a passing gipsy.”

“Quite possibly he was, Watson. Yet did it not strike you as curious that the fellow was skulking in the grounds of the house?”

“Well, I had supposed that he had in fact never penetrated the garden itself.”

“Indeed, Watson? Then it is perhaps as well that I have taken an interest in the matter. We should not wish the Count Palatine to fail to reach his homeland in safety. You have said nothing of his rapid recovery to anybody but myself?”

“Of course not, Holmes. Of course not.”

Yet just one week later as, making what I hoped might be my last visit into Hertfordshire, I approached my mysterious patient’s residence I was reminded with sudden shame that I had in fact spoken about his recovery outside the house the previous week when I had been talking to the manservant who had driven me back to the station in the dog-cart, and I recalled too that I had spoken in tones deliberately loud and clear so as to make sure that I was understood by this foreigner. I was debating with myself whether those words