The Miscellaneous Writings and Speeches-2 [128]
sets which we before compared. The fecundity, therefore, ought, on Mr Sadler's principle, to be less than in that set. But it is again greater, and that in all Mr Sadler's three tables. We have a regularly ascending series, where, if his theory had any truth in it, we ought to have a regularly descending series. We will give the results of our calculation. The number of children to 1000 marriages is-- 1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table In the sixteen departments where there are from 68 to 107 people on a square mile................ 4188 4226 3780 In the sixteen departments where there are from 107 to 125 people on a square mile................ 4374 4332 3855 In the sixteen departments where there are from 134 to 155 people on a square mile................ 4484 4416 3914 We will give another instance, if possible still more decisive. We will take the three departments of France which ought, on Mr Sadler's principle, to be the lowest in fecundity of all the eighty-five, saving only that in which Paris stands; and we will compare them with the three departments in which the fecundity ought, according to him, to be greater than in any other department of France, two only excepted. We will compare Bas Rhin, Rhone, and Nord, with Lozere, Landes, and Indre. In Lozere, Landes, and Indre, the population is from 68 to 84 on the square mile or nearly so. In Bas Rhin, Rhone, and Nord, it is from 300 to 417 on the square mile. There cannot be a more overwhelming answer to Mr Sadler's theory than the table which we subjoin: The number of births to 1000 marriages is-- 1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table In the three departments in which there are from 68 to 84 people on the square mile............... 4372 4390 3890 In the three departments in which there are from 300 to 417 people on the square mile............... 4457 4510 4060 These are strong cases. But we have a still stronger case. Take the whole of the third, fourth, and fifth divisions into which Mr Sadler has portioned out the French departments. These three divisions make up almost the whole kingdom of France. They contain seventy-nine out of the eighty-five departments. Mr Sadler has contrived to divide them in such a manner that, to a person who looks merely at his averages, the fecundity seems to diminish as the population thickens. We will separate them into two parts instead of three. We will draw the line between the department of Gironde and that of Herault. On the one side are the thirty-two departments from Cher to Gironde inclusive. On the other side are the forty-six departments from Herault to Nord inclusive. In all the departments of the former set, the population is under 132 on the square mile. In all the departments of the latter set, it is above 132 on the square mile. It is clear that, if there be one word of truth in Mr Sadler's theory, the fecundity in the latter of these divisions must be very decidedly smaller than in the former. Is it so? It is, on the contrary, greater in all the three tables. We give the result. The number of births to 1000 marriages is-- 1st Table 2nd Table 3rd Table In the thirty-two departments in which there are from 86 to 132 people on the square mile....... 4210 4199 3760 In the forty-seven departments in which there are from 132 to 417 people on the square mile........ 4250 4224 3766 This fact is alone enough to decide the question. Yet it is only one of a crowd of similar facts. If the line between Mr Sadler's second and third division be drawn six departments lower down, the third and fourth divisions will, in all the tables, be above the second. If the line between the third and fourth divisions be drawn two departments lower down, the fourth division will be above the third in all the tables. If the line between the fourth and fifth division be drawn two departments lower down, the fifth will, in all the