The sum of all fears - Tom Clancy [239]
"But with the reductions, the calculus changes. Now, depending on the mix of forces, such an attack becomes theoretically possible, and that's why the mix of forces was so carefully spelled out in the treaty documents."
"You're saying that the reduction makes things more dangerous rather than less?" Fowler asked.
"No, sir, not exactly. I've said all along - I consulted with the treaty team back some years ago, back when Ernie Alien was running it - that the net strategic improvement from a fifty percent reduction was illusory, mere symbolism."
"Oh, come on," Elliot observed scathingly. "It's a reduction by half of -"
"Dr Elliot, if you ever bothered to sit in on the CAMELOT games you'd understand this a little better." Ryan turned away before he noticed her reaction to this rebuke. Fowler noticed her flush briefly and almost smiled in amusement at her discomfort at being cut down in front of her lover. The President returned his attention to Ryan, sure that he and Elizabeth would speak further on the matter.
"This issue gets very technical. If you don't believe me, ask Secretary Bunker or General Fremont out at SAC Headquarters. The deciding factor is the mix of forces, not the number. If they hold onto those extra SS-18 regiments, the mix is changed to the point at which the Soviets have a genuine advantage. The effect on the treaty is substantive, not merely numerical. But there's more."
"Okay," the President said.
"According to this report, there appears to be some collusion between the military and the KGB. As you know, while the Soviet military owns and maintains the strategic launchers, the warheads have always been under KGB control. Kadishev thinks that those two agencies are getting a little too cozy, and further that security on the warheads might be problematic."
"Meaning what?"
"Meaning that an inventory of tactical warheads is being withheld."
"Missing nukes?"
"Small ones. It's possible, he says."
"In other words," Fowler said, "their military may be blackmailing Narmonov, and it's possible that they are holding some small weapons as their trump cards?"
Not bad, Mr President. "Correct, sir."
Fowler was quiet for thirty seconds or so, turning that over in his head as he stared into space. "How reliable is this Kadishev?"
"Mr President, he's been in our employ for five years. His advice has been very valuable to us, and to the best of our knowledge he's never misled us."
"Possible that he's been turned?" Elliot asked.
"Possible but not likely. We have ways of dealing with that. There are pre-arranged code-phrases which warn us of trouble. Good-news phrases accompany each report, and did in this case also."
"What about confirming the report through other sources?"
"Sorry, Dr Elliot, but we have nothing to confirm this."
"You came down here with an unconfirmed report?" Elliot asked.
"That is correct." Ryan admitted, not knowing how tired he looked. "There aren't too many agents who could make me do that, but this is one of them."
"What can you do to confirm that?" Fowler asked.
"We can make discreet inquiries through our own networks, and with your permission we can have careful discussions with some foreign services. The Brits have someone in the Kremlin who's giving them some really good stuff. I know Sir Basil Charleston, and I can make approaches, but that means revealing something of what we know. You don't do something like this on the old-boy net. At this level you have to make a real quid pro quo. We never do that without getting executive approval."
"I can understand that. Give me a day to think about it. Does Marcus know about this?"
"No, Mr President. He has the flu. Ordinarily, I would not have come here without consulting with the Director first, but I figured you would want to know about this quickly."
"You've said previously that the Soviet military was more politically reliable than