The Two Koreas_ A Contemporary History - Don Oberdorfer [181]
An even more vexing problem was what Japan could or could not do to assist the U.S. military in a blockade or shooting war within the bounds of General Douglas MacArthur's post-World War II "no war" constitution, which sharply limits Japanese military actions outside its home islands. As its military buildup neared, U.S. Forces Japan drew up a planning list of 1,900 items of potentially needed assistance, ranging from cutting the grass at U.S. bases to supplying fuel, materiel, and weapons and using Japanese ships and planes for sweeping mines and gathering intelligence. The Japanese government, concerned that it might be unable to meet U.S. requests, set up a special headquarters to define what it would be able to do, and was preparing short-term legislation to permit military cooperation. Had this been put to the test, said a Japanese diplomat who was deeply involved, it would have been "a nightmare." As a result of this experience, Japan and the United States began an extensive review of Japanese guidelines for military crisis cooperation.
China, the main source of North Korea's energy and food imports, was by all estimates the most important Asian participant in the sanctions discussion. Since China had a veto in the UN Security Council, no sanctions resolution could be adopted without its acquiescence. While reluctant to use the veto, China consistently opposed sanctions against North Korea, saying that negotiations provided the only solution.
At the same time, the Chinese were privately irritated by North Korea's actions and apprehensive that its policies could lead to a disaster on China's borders. A key moment came on May 29, when Clinton, in a reversal of previous administration policy, announced he would grant U.S. most-favored-nation trade status to China without human rights conditions. This made it more attractive and politically acceptable for Chinese leaders to cooperate with the United States on the Korea issue.
In the view of White House national security adviser Anthony Lake, a principal purpose of the sanctions resolution was to press the Chinese to use muscle with the North Koreans in order to head it off. In a similar vein, ROK Foreign Minister Han told his Chinese counterpart, Qian Qichen, on June 9 in Beijing that there was only one way for China to avoid voting on sanctions in the UN Security Council-and that was to persuade North Korea in advance that it could not count on a Chinese veto, and therefore North Korea would have to defuse the situation on its own.
On June 10, according to accounts conveyed by the Chinese to a variety of American, South Korean, and Japanese diplomats, Chinese diplomats in Pyongyang and Beijing presented the North Koreans with a most unpleasant message: although China continued to oppose sanctions, the strength of international opinion was such that China might not be able to veto them. Therefore Beijing strongly urged Pyongyang to take action to accommodate international opinion on the nuclear issue in its own interest or face drastic conse quences without Chinese protection. Many diplomats believe this warning had a substantial impact.
On the same day as the Chinese intervention, the IAEA board in Vienna sharply criticized North Korea and voted to suspend its technical assistance of about $500,000 yearly to Pyongyang's nuclear program. In practical effect, this was an international sanction. However, the Chinese ambassador in Vienna, rather than vote against it, merely abstained. In response to the vote, North Korea announced it would withdraw from the IAEA, expel the remaining international inspectors, and refuse to cooperate with "continuity of safeguards." If carried out, this would have ended the last vestige of international surveillance from the unloaded fuel rods and the extensive nuclear facilities in Yongbyon. This development set off new alarm bells in Washington, Seoul, Tokyo, and other world capitals, sharply increasing international concern about Pyongyang's nuclear intentions.
Even as these developments