The World in 2050_ Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future - Laurence C. Smith [16]
The reason that the world’s rural people are moving into cities is that they can make more money in town. This is partly because of the described growth of urban economies, and partly because demand for farm labor falls as agriculture commercializes, mechanizes, and becomes export-oriented. Worldwide employment in agriculture is falling fast and in 2006, for the first time ever, it was surpassed by employment in the services sector.46 And because every new urban resident is also a new urban consumer, the cycle is self-reinforcing. More urbanites buy more electronics, services, and imported processed food, prepared and served to them by others. More entry-level jobs for new migrants are created. More managerial posts are needed. Ladders rise and the urban economy grows .47
This urban shift is driving major demographic changes around the globe. City dwellers are projected to roughly double in number by 2050, rising from 3.3 billion in 2007 to 6.4 billion in 2050.48 However, the geography of this is not uniform. Urban majorities came to Europe and America decades ago, in the 1960s, 1950s, or even sooner. These places are already more than 70% urban today. This new trend is most dramatic in the developing world, especially Asia and Africa, the most populous places on Earth.
For the last two decades, cities in the developing world have been growing by about three million people per week.49 That is equivalent to adding one more Seattle to the planet every day. Asia is only about 40% urban today, but by 2050 that number will top 70% in China, with over one billion new city slickers in that country alone. Already, places like Chongqing, Xiamen, and Shenzhen are growing more than 10% annually.
About 38% of Africans live in cities today, but by 2050 more than half will. While Africa will still be less urbanized than Europe or North America today, this is nonetheless a profound transformation. When combined with its fast population growth rate, this means that Africa will triple the size of its cities over the next forty years.50 At 1.2 billion people, Africa will hold nearly a quarter of the world’s urban population.51
Tucked away in the back of a 2008 report by the United Nations Population Division are some stunning data tables.52 They rank our past, present, and future “megacities”—urban agglomerations with ten million inhabitants or more—for the years 1950, 1975, 2007, and 2025. The projections may surprise you:
World Megacities of Ten Million or More
(population in millions)
1950
New York-Newark, USA (12.3)
Tokyo, Japan (11.3)
1975
Tokyo, Japan (26.6)
New York-Newark, USA (15.9)
Mexico City, Mexico (10.7)
2007
Tokyo, Japan (35.7)
New York-Newark, USA (19.0)
Mexico City, Mexico (19.0)
Mumbai, India (19.0)
São Paulo, Brazil (18.8)
Delhi, India (15.9)
Shanghai, China (15.0)
Kolkata (Calcutta), India (14.8)
Dhaka, Bangladesh (13.5)
Buenos Aires, Argentina (12.8)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, USA (12.5)
Karachi, Pakistan (12.1)
Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt (11.9)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (11.7)
Osaka-Kobe, Japan (11.3)
Beijing, China (11.1)
Manila, Philippines (11.1)
Moskva (Moscow), Russia (10.5)
Istanbul, Turkey (10.1)
2025
Tokyo, Japan (36.4)
Mumbai, India (26.4)
Delhi, India (22.5)
Dhaka, Bangladesh (22.0)
São Paulo, Brazil (21.4)
Mexico City, Mexico (21.0)
New York-Newark, USA (20.6)
Kolkata (Calcutta), India (20.6)
Shanghai, China (19.4)
Karachi, Pakistan (19.1)
Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo (16.8)
Lagos, Nigeria (15.8)
Al-Qahirah (Cairo), Egypt (15.6)
Manila, Philippines (14.8)
Beijing, China (14.5)
Buenos Aires, Argentina (13.8)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, USA (13.7)
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (13.4)
Jakarta,