The World in 2050_ Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future - Laurence C. Smith [177]
509 For more on the challenges surrounding this problem, see S. E. Trumbore, C. I. Czimczik, “An Uncertain Future for Soil Carbon,” Science 321 (2008): 1455-1456.
510 By drilling cores to the bottom of peatlands and radiocarbon dating their age, we know that northern peatlands started spreading quickly about 11,700 years ago as the Younger Dryas cold period ended. This methane shows up in ice cores of Greenland and Antarctica. L. C. Smith et al., “Siberian Peatlands a Net Carbon Sink and Global Methane Source since the Early Holocene,” Science 303 (2004): 353-356; and G. M. MacDonald et al., “Rapid Early Development of Circumarctic Peatlands and Atmospheric CH4 and CO2 Variations,” Science 314 (2006): 285-288. Sweden study is E. Dorrepaal et al., “Carbon Respiration from Subsurface Peat Accelerated by Climate Warming in the Subarctic,” Nature 460 (2009): 616-619, DOI:10.1038/nature08216. The two West Siberia studies are K. E. Frey and L. C. Smith, “Amplified Carbon Release from Vast West Siberian Peatlands by 2100,” Geophysical Research Letters 32, L09401 (2005), DOI:10.1029/2004GL022025, 2005; and D. W. Beilman et al., “Carbon Accumulation in Peatlands of West Siberia over the Last 2000 Years,” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 23, GB1012 (2009), DOI:10.1029/2007GB003112. Alaska study is E. A. G. Schuur et al., “The Effect of Permafrost Thaw on Old Carbon Release and Net Carbon Exchange from Tundra,” Nature 459 (2009): 556-559, DOI:10.1038/nature08031.
511 In other words a large generation of parents born when fertility was still high. Population momentum also works in reverse—for example, elderly countries would continue to shrink even if fertility were increased, owing to a small generation of parents born when fertility was low.
512 As a percentage of GNP, over the period 1880-1913 national investment and national savings were more strongly correlated in the industrialized countries than they were in 1999, meaning that investment today relies more on domestic saving and less on foreign investment than it did in 1913. Pp. 89-90 and Figure 3.3, P. Knox et al., The Geography of the World Economy, 4th ed. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 437 pp.
513 Just before World War I broke out, merchandise trade averaged 12% of gross national output for industrialized nations, a level not attained again until the 1970s. P. 32, M. B. Steger, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction (New York: Oxford University Press, 2003), 147 pp.
514 Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (Washington, D.C.: U.S. National Intelligence Council, 2008), 99 pp.
515 “Green with Envy: The Tension between Free Trade and Capping Emissions,” The Economist, November 21, 2009.
516 Nataliya Ryzhova and Grigory Ioffe document hyberbolic assertions ranging from ten to twelve million Chinese already inside Russia to predictions of forty million by the year 2020. Russian migration scholars estimate a current figure of only four hundred thousand Chinese. N. Ryzhova, G. Ioffe, “Trans-border Exchange between Russia and China: The Case of Blagoveshchensk and Heihe,” Eurasian Geography and Economics 50, no. 3 (2009): 348-364, DOI:10.2747/1539-7216.50.3.348.
517 Ryzhova and Ioffe note thirty-four thousand Chinese labor migrants in Amur Oblast versus an official statistic of just 435. Ibid.
518 B. Lo, “The Long Sunset of Strategic Partnership: Russia’s Evolving China Policy,” International Affairs 80, no. 2 (2004): 295-309. This contested island was finally ceded to China in 1991.
519 W-J Kim, “Cooperation and Conflict among Provinces: The Three Northeastern Provinces of China, the Russian Far East, and Sinuiju, North Korea,” Issues & Studies 44, no. 3 (September 2008): 205-227. “Development of Trade and Economic Collaboration between China and Primorye Discussed in Vladivostok,” http://vladivostoktimes.ru/show/?id=48916&p= (accessed March 11, 2010).
520 In 2004 Turkey signed a deal to send water by