The World in 2050_ Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future - Laurence C. Smith [180]
Page 126, 128: Climate model projections reprinted courtesy IPCC AR4 (see endnote 277 for full reference). Climate-change projection maps presented in Chapter Five were modified by permission of the IPCC, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Figure 10.8, Cambridge University Press. Please note that the modifications made to these maps (“optimistic,” “moderate,” “pessimistic”) are for the purposes of this book only, and are not suggested or used by the IPCC.
Pages 158-159: Maps by author using 2006 shipping data from AMSA, 2009 (see endnote 362).
Page 166: Map by author.
Page 212: Map by author.
Page 250: “Abandonment of the Jeannette” reprinted from Wonders of the Polar World, National Publishing Co.: Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, 1885. “The Last Polar Bear” used by permission from Freezingpictures/Dreamstime.com/GetStock.com.
For photo insert (numbers refer to photograph sequence):
1. Photo used by permission from James Martell; 2, 3. Photos by author; 4. Photo used by permission from John Rasmussen, Narsaq Foto; 5. Photo used by permission from Dr. Ivan Frolov, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Saint Petersburg; 6. Photo used by permission from ITAR-TASS News Agency, Russian Federation, 7-11. Photos by author; 12. Photo used by permission from Dr. Vladimir Romanovsky, University of Alaska—Fairbanks; 13. Photo by author; 14. Photo used by permission from Toronto Star/GetStock.com; 15. Photo used by permission from Dr. Richard Forster, University of Utah; 16. Photo used by permission from David Dodge, The Pembina Institute (www.oilsandswatch.org); 7. Photo used by permission from Benjamin Jones, Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Anchorage. Backmatter author photo used by permission from Karen Frey, Clark Univertiy.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This project came about thanks to the urging of two highly accomplished colleagues: Judith Carney and William A. V. Clark, of the UCLA Department of Geography. The conversation over a brief coffee with Clark, a hard-boiled statistician not known for mincing words, went like this:
Clark: You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.
Smith: I’m a scientist. We don’t write books.
Clark: Nonsense. I know plenty that do. You need to apply for a Guggenheim and write a book.
Four years later the book is done thanks to their advice, a fellowship from the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation, and the support of three other especially encouraging colleagues—John Agnew, Jared Diamond, and David Rigby, also UCLA geographers.
I thank my agent, Russell Weinberger of Brockman, Inc., for taking on a first-time book author with no experience writing for a lay audience. His patience in fielding my many questions was surpassed only by the patience of my editors Stephen Morrow (Dutton, New York) and Duncan Clark (Profile Books, London).
I am indebted to my amazing wife, Abbie Tingstad, who I met researching the book. Aside from her graciousness upon discovering her new husband would embed at his desk for nearly two years, she was the book’s foremost critic and sounding board. I thank my parents, Norman and Judith Smith, and brother, Daniel, for being so supportive of me throughout the project.
Maps and illustrations were drawn by the superb cartographer and artist Chase Langford. Vital research assistance was provided by UCLA students Vena Chu, Nora Hazzakzadeh, and Scott Stephenson.
The manuscript was substantially improved thanks to critical expert reviews of one or more chapters by John Agnew, Richard Alley, Doug Alsdorf, Lawson Brigham, Marshall Burke, Richard Glenn, John Grace, Richard Forster, Dennis Lettenmaier, David Perrin, and Gavin Schmidt. Scott Lefavour and Gary Levy provided helpful feedback on the final chapter. Norman Smith and Abbie Tingstad read and commented on the manuscript in its entirety.
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