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So far, the United States has been trying to stop Iran’s nuclear program through financial and economic sanctions. But Iranians have lived with sanctions since the beginning of the revolution, and shrewd Iranian officials know quite well how to use legal and financial loopholes in the international system to their own advantage. Opening front companies and bank accounts and laundering money to acquire arms—in other words, employing the same methods used by international criminal cartels—has become second nature to them. Iran has also managed to divide the international community by making strategic alliances with America’s main rivals, Russia and China, as well as such emerging powers as Turkey and Brazil. But even those countries’ patience has a limit, and they too are becoming increasingly frustrated with Iran’s intransigence. They also understand that eventually they will have to choose between supporting Iran and doing business with the United States. It is not a difficult choice, and more countries have started to support American policies against Iran.

The idea of an American or Israeli attack against Iran is, at the moment, a nightmare, but it could quickly turn into reality, with disastrous results for both Iran and the rest of the world. I can understand other countries’ frustration with the lack of development in nuclear negotiations with Iran. After all, many Iranian diplomats and officials are erratic thugs like Rosewater (incidentally, some Iranian diplomats are former interrogators and torturers). I also know that many American politicians seek reelection by displays of saber rattling with Iran. But a military attack against Iran will militarize the regime further, and will encourage even nationalist pro-Western Iranians to side with the government against a foreign enemy.

My nightmare scenario of a violent crushing of all remnants of the democratic movement in Iran and a foreign military attack would also mean jeopardizing Western interests in the region for the foreseeable future.

On my more optimistic days, I think of a positive scenario: one in which Iran can change peacefully with the help of the rest of the world. As the democratic changes in the rest of the Middle East have shown, pro-Western tyranny and Islamic fundamentalism are not the only choices for Iranians. The West, especially the United States, should respect Iran’s independence and the nationalist sentiments of Iranians. A democratic, independent government in Iran that respects the people’s religious and cultural traditions will most likely have serious disagreements with the West, but those issues can be negotiated in a civilized manner without recourse to violence by either side.

Change toward a more democratic Iran cannot, and should not, happen overnight. I am proud of the maturity and the restraint shown by a generation of educated young Iranians who refuse to become the mirror image of the brutes who rule them. The current despotic system is based on ignorance and backwardness, and given enough time and support by the international community, young Iranians can move their country toward democracy. I am not sure how long it will take, but I often remind myself that it took the Soviet Union more than seventy years to collapse.

My optimism is not a foolish hopefulness. It is based on facts. The Islamic regime has two main weak spots: information and the economy. The West can help Iranians by manipulating these weaknesses over a period of time to bring about a peaceful change in the country. With Iran’s history of tyranny and monarchy, many people are used to being the subjects of a despot; democracy is a foreign concept to them. But the number of extremist religious Iranians who want a monarch to rule them is rapidly shrinking. More young Iranians are becoming better educated every year, with greater access to the outside world through satellite TV and the Internet. These enlightened Iranians are the West’s most important allies in the region. The international community should continue targeted sanctions against