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D’ represents the (opposite) action that caused the problem. Boxes B and C are the needs each action is trying to satisfy (or the needs that will be jeopardized if the actions in D and D’ are taken) and last, Box A is the common objective or goal for that system or subsystem. As an example, if the UDE/problem is a growing performance gap, then D—the action to deal with the problem—is “Change now” to satisfy a need (B) of “Improve Performance/Stop Decay.” The opposite action (D’) is “Don’t change now” to satisfy a need (C) of “Maintain Stability/Personal Security” and the common objective is “Ongoing Success.”

Figure 15-5 shows the three generic (core) conflicts for when to change, what to change, and how to change (including when to stop a change).

Mistakes of omission (when or what not) and commission (what and how) are closely linked. Although mistakes of omission can simply be due to ignorance (e.g., when the change needed is unknown or counterintuitive), the main reason people make mistakes of omission is that they fear making mistakes of commission (Ackoff, 2006). From the outside, it frequently appears as if the assumptions on which such fears or claims of “not knowing” are based are not rational. Therefore, to prevent these mistakes, we need to identify what assumptions are ultimately driving the wrong decisions when faced with these conflicts and then find a way to show that these assumptions can and should be challenged.

Finding a Simple and Systematic Way to Break Conflicts

Leonardo da Vinci (1452–1519) said, “All our knowledge (and decisions) has its origins in our perceptions (our assumptions about reality).” The decisions relating to when to change (and when not to change), what to change (and what not to change) as well as how to change (and how not to change), and whether to stop or rework are influenced by our individual and organizational assumptions or “paradigms.”

With the TOC Thinking Processes (TPs), the key to finding any breakthrough solution is to identify, invalidate, and remove one or more of the “erroneous” or limiting assumptions that block us from breaking the conflict (what to stop thinking or doing) and to replace it with a “more valid” assumption that will enable achievement of a better win-win (what to start thinking or doing). The simplest and frequently most effective and efficient way to find such erroneous assumptions is to focus on the conflict arrows within each of the core conflict clouds (Barnard, 2007) i.e. Why D jeopardize C, why D’ jeopardize B, why D and D’ is in conflict and why there is not another way (E) to satisfy B and C.

FIGURE 15-5 Core conflicts related to knowing when, what, and how to change.

Challenging Assumptions Related to WHEN (and WHEN NOT) to Change

There will be disagreement on when to change and when not to change as long as some stakeholders believe it is not possible to change or that they are doing the best they can (due to an assumption of “a constraint that is out-of-my-control”) or that the change is not necessary (due to an assumption of “we still have time”). To break this conflict, we need a reliable way to validate (or invalidate) that the all constraints can be overcome and that we don’t have any more time (without risking serious consequences).

Challenging Assumptions Related to WHAT (and WHAT NOT) to Change

There will be disagreement on what to change and what not to change as long as some stakeholders believe that more is always better, that every local improvement will result in a global improvement, or that focusing scarce resources on a few high-leverage opportunities is too risky or not fair (i.e., we should capitalize on all improvement opportunities). To break this conflict, we need an acknowledgment that management must focus their scarce resources on high-leverage changes, which requires a way to differentiate between all the many parts (of a complex system) that can be improved from the few that must be improved now to get more goal units.

Challenging Assumptions Related to HOW (and HOW NOT) to Change

There