Tom Clancy's op-center_ acts of war - Tom Clancy [51]
"Fine," Lincoln said, raising his hands slightly. "Just a precaution."
Hood looked at the new map which the Situation Room secretary had just put up on the screens. Armenia was situated with Turkey on its western border and Azerbaijan to the east. The Nagorno Karabakh region in Azerbaijan was claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
"Obviously," said Lincoln, "the greatest danger isn't that Azerbaijan and Aremenia will go to war. The two of them put together are about half the size of Texas with a combined population of Greater Los Angeles. The danger is that Iran, located directly below them, and Russia, situated directly above them, will start moving troops to protect their own borders. Iran would love to get their hands on that region. It's rich in oil, natural gas, copper, farmland, and other resources. And the hard-liners in Russia would love to get it back."
"There are also devout Christians in Armenia," said Vanzandt, "and Iran would love to clean them out. Without Armenia to serve as a counterbalance to the mostly Muslim population of Azerbaijan, the entire region becomes a de facto part of Islamic Iran."
"Maybe," said Lincoln. "There are other hair triggers as well. For example, the fifteen million Azeris in the northern provinces of Iran. If they decide to secede, Iran will fight to hold them. And the five million ethnic Caucasians in Turkey will surely fight with their Iranian kin. That puts Iran and Turkey at war with one another. And if the Caucasians fight for independence, chances are good the North Caucasus will be ripped apart by other groups looking to resolve ages-old strife. The Ossetians and Ingush, the Ossetians and the Georgians, the Abkhazians and the Georgians, the Checkens and the Cossacks, the Chechens and the Laks, the Azeris and the Lezgins."
"What's frustrating," said Colon, "'is that both Bob Herbert's team at Op-Center and Grady Reynolds's team at the CIA agree with my own people. Damascus probably had nothing to do with blowing up the dam. They'd have to be insane to cut off more than half their own water supply."
"Maybe they want to generate international sympathy," Burkow said. "Videos and photographs of thirsty babies and dying old people would give Syria an instant image-remake. It would help to turn United States sympathy and foreign aid away from Turkey and Israel to them."
"It would also cause the much larger and better-armed Turkish Army to come marching down their throats," Colon replied. "This dam incident is an act of war. In such a war, the U.S. military and our financial institutions would be obliged by NATO treaty to support Turkey. Israel would also support the Turks, especially if it gave them a chance to hit Syria."
"Only if Syria rises to the challenge of war," Burkow said. "Turkey might mass an army on the Syrian border. So might Syria. But if Syria chooses not to reply, there'll be no war."
"And the Arab world would consider them dishonored," Colon said. "No, Steve, that's just too Machiavellian. This makes more sense if it's the work of Syrian Kurds."
"Why would the Kurds seek to cause an international confrontation?" asked the President. "They've been desperate enough to attack host nations. But would they do something on this scale?"
"We've been expecting the different Kurdish nationals to unite for some time," said Larry Rachlin. "Otherwise, they run the risk of getting picked off separately. This could be that unification."
"Kurdistan in diaspora," said Lincoln.
"Exactly," said Rachlin.
"The truth is, Steve," said Lincoln, "General Vanzandt is right to worry about what the Kurds might do. As things stand, they're among the most persecuted people on Earth. Distributed throughout Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, they're actively oppressed by all three governments. Until 1991, they weren't even allowed to use their own language in Turkey. Under pressure from the other NATO nations, Ankara reluctantly granted them that but nor more. Over twenty thousand Turks have been killed since the rebels started