Tropic of Chaos_ Climate Change and the New Geography of Violence - Christian Parenti [125]
5 On Africa the IPCC writes, “Warming is very likely to be larger than the global annual mean warming throughout the continent and in all seasons, with drier subtropical regions warming more than the moister tropics. Annual rainfall is likely to decrease in much of Mediterranean Africa and the northern Sahara, with a greater likelihood of decreasing rainfall as the Mediterranean coast is approached. Rainfall in southern Africa is likely to decrease in much of the winter rainfall region and western margins. There is likely to be an increase in annual mean rainfall in East Africa. It is unclear how rainfall in the Sahel, the Guinean Coast and the southern Sahara will evolve.” Susan Solomon, Dahe Qin, Martin Manning, and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group I, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 850.
6 Katharine Houreld, “Kenya: 10 Million Risk Hunger After Harvests Fail,” Associated Press, January 9, 2009.
7 “Heavy Rains to Affect Hundreds of Thousands,” IRIN, November 14, 2008.
8 The preceding section is based on James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2009); Bill McKibben, Earth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet (New York: Henry Holt & Co., 2010); Tim Flannery, The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth (New York: HarperCollins, 2006); Elizabeth Kolbert, Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature and Climate Change (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2006); Eugene Linden, The Winds of Change: Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006); Al Gore, Earth in the Balance (New York: Plume, 1993); Al Gore, An Inconvenient Truth (New York: Rodale Books, 2006); George Monbiot, Heat: How to Stop the Planet from Burning (New York: Doubleday, 2006). Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis: Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html. For latest atmospheric CO2 concentrations see http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/
9 “Towards a Goal for Climate Change Stabilisation,” ch. 13 (13.5) in Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change (Treasury of the Government of the UK, 2006).
10 Clive Hamilton, Charles Stuart Professor of Public Ethics, Centre for Applied Philosophy and Public Ethics at the Australian National University, “Is It Too Late to Prevent Catastrophic Climate Change?” (lecture to a meeting of the Royal Society of the Arts, Sydney, Australia, October 21, 2009), 11. Available at www.clivehamilton.net.au (accessed January 19, 2011).
11 Kevin Anderson et al, “From Long-Term Targets to Cumulative Emission Pathways : Reframing UK Climate Policy,” Energy Policy 36, no. 10 (2008): 3714–3722.
12 For details on this activism, see the 350.org website (www.350.org). Hassen’s paper can be found at J. Hansen et al., “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” Cornell University Library, October 15, 2008, http://arxiv.org/abs/0804.1126.
13 For a review of the literature and its research methods, see Nils Petter Gleditsch, “Armed Conflict and the Environment: A Critique of the Literature,” Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 3 (May 1998): 381–400.
14 “Thousands Flee amid Fears of Fighting Along Border,” IRIN, November 29, 2008.
15 This debate is covered very well in Adanoo Wario Roba and Karen M. Witsenburg, Surviving Pastoral Decline: Pastoral Sedentarization, Natural Resource