Truth - Al Franken [74]
Too much money. That was our problem four and a half years ago.
Since then, thanks to the leadership of President George W. Bush, we have entirely averted that problem. Some might even argue that we’ve gone too far in the other direction. Instead of drowning in black ink, the government has had to borrow more than 2 trillion dollars.
That gives you some idea why we might not want to make huge, fundamental decisions based upon long-term economic forecasts. If Alan Greenspan can be that far off in four and a half years, try to imagine the size of the margin of error when George W. Bush tells you what to expect in, say, 2042.
Of course, after Greenspan’s testimony, a number of unforeseen events changed the fiscal landscape. Things like 9/11, the war in Iraq, Bush’s general incompetence, and, most of all, Bush’s dogged insistence on a series of increasingly unaffordable tax cuts for the rich. My point is that there may be some unforeseeable circumstances between now and 2042. What are they? When will they happen? It’s tough to say with any certainty. That’s my point.
One thing that has proved very resilient to unforeseen circumstances is Social Security. Social Security survived World War II, the Cold War, Vietnam, the sexual revolution, oil shocks, stagflation, and the demise of Kozmo.com, which used to deliver snacks to people’s apartments in less than an hour with no delivery charge. No matter what America and the world could throw at it, Social Security just kept on ticking, sending out checks to delighted seniors, people with disabilities, and widows and orphans. Today, Social Security provides more than half the income for most of America’s senior citizens. If it disappeared tomorrow, the poverty rate among senior citizens would jump from 8.7 percent to 46.8 percent. By almost all accounts, Social Security was the greatest achievement of the New Deal, and perhaps the greatest achievement of any kind in human history.
But after winning the 2004 election, George W. Bush decided that he had some “political capital” to spend, and he was going to spend it to “save” Social Security. Why did it need saving? Because there was a crisis looming. In 2042, a mere thirty-seven years hence, Social Security would be “bankrupt,” “flat broke,” and would have to, if the very conservative projections of the Social Security Administration were precisely on target, cut future projected benefits by 27 percent. (Of course, benefits will grow every year until then, so that even after the cut, they’d still be higher than they are today.)
The solution to this crisis? Driving a stake through the heart of the program by transforming it from a system of shared protection from, as Roosevelt put it, “the hazards and vicissitudes of life” into a glorified IRA. Plus cutting benefits.
Incidentally, this would be a windfall for Bush’s friends in the money management business.
I know it all sounds like some kind of crazy dream. But earlier this very year (assuming you’re reading this in 2005), Bush and his friends actually tried to begin privatizing Social Security. What they did, why they did it, and how we beat them is more than just a satisfying bedtime story for young Democrats. It shows how today’s Republicans have an extreme agenda that has nothing to do with the public interest, how there’s no way to sell that agenda with anything approaching honesty, and how, once people find out what the hell they’re really trying to do, their “new ideas” are exposed as “bad ideas” that “fail.”
Why did Bush choose to spend his capital on Social Security? After all, there are plenty of problems facing America. What made this more important than, say, armoring the Humvees of our fighting men and women in Iraq? As far as I can tell, there are two possibilities. Either Bush chose to “save” Social Security for the reasons that he repeatedly put forward. Or, he chose it because of reasons he didn’t put forward.
If it was for the reasons he did put forward, then we don’t have to speculate about any hidden reasons. That would save time. Not to mention what