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as there is only one state—China—that could challenge America’s position of primacy. But China has a long way to go before it catches up, and it has problems that may slow or even halt its climb to the top.1 At the same time, a large portion of the American foreign-policy establishment—including Democrats and Republicans—believes that the United States has a moral as well as strategic responsibility not only to police the entire globe, but to try to shape the politics of individual countries. Moreover, American leaders have not been shy about using military force to achieve their grand goals. The United States has fought five wars since the Cold War ended in 1989, and it has been at war for fourteen of the subsequent twenty-two years: 1991 against Iraq; 1995 and 1999 against Sebia; 2001–2002 against Afghanistan; 2003–2011 against both Afghanistan and Iraq.

The ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will surely dampen the foreign-policy elite’s enthusiasm for reshaping the world at the end of a rifle barrel, but it remains to be seen how much. As a result, it may not be long before the United States marches off on another crusade. There is little reason to think that its basic commitment to running the world will go away anytime soon, which means that United States is going to be deeply involved in global politics for the foreseeable future.

Such an ambitious foreign policy is likely to create numerous situations in the years ahead where America’s leaders feel compelled to fearmonger. Remember, the leaders who are most likely to lie to their publics are those who head democracies bent on fighting wars of choice in distant places. That description obviously fits the United States, and it goes a long way toward explaining the Bush administration’s deceptions in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq war. But it was certainly not the first administration to engage in fearmongering and it will not be the last. The United States spends more on its military than the rest of the world put together; it has a robust nuclear deterrent and is insulated from most dangers by two enormous oceans. Given how secure America really is, the only way its leaders can justify ambitious global crusades is to convince the American people that relatively minor problems are in fact dire and growing dangers. Given America’s global ambitions, therefore, we should expect fearmongering to be a constant feature of its national security discourse in the years ahead. This is bad news, because fearmongering not only can have a corrosive effect on democratic institutions, it can also lead to disasters like Iraq and Vietnam.

Notes

Preface

1. Mary Dalrymple, “Kerry Avoids Calling Bush ‘Liar,’” MSNBC.com, September 24, 2004, http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6086823; David Stout, “Kerry Accuses Bush of Hiding the Truth about Iraq,” New York Times, September 16, 2004. “Transcript: First Presidential Debate,” Washington Post, September 30, 2004. However, as Dalrymple points out, others involved in the Kerry campaign did not hesitate to call Bush a liar, and Kerry himself did on occasion call Bush a liar, although he was clearly reluctant to use that word. Patrick Healy, “Kerry Camp Lowers N.H. Expectations: Behind in Polls, Senator Now Seeks Spot in ‘Top Two,’” Boston Globe, December 8 2003.

Introduction

1. Charles A. Duelfer, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq’s WMD, Vol. 1 (Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, September 30, 2004), 34–35. See also Julian Borger, “Interrogators ‘Botched Hunt for Iraq’s WMD,’” Guardian, April 27, 2005; Rupert Cornwell, “Saddam Was Bluffing over WMD Stocks, Says Report,” Independent, October 2, 2003; Johanna McGeary, Timothy J. Burger, and Elaine Shannon, “What Saddam Was Really Thinking,” Time, October 18, 2004, http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/

0,9171,995422,00.html; Walter Pincus and Dana Priest, “Hussein’s Weapons May Have Been Bluff,” Washington Post, October 1, 2003; Alec Russell, “Leaked Report Points to Saddam WMD Bluff,” Telegraph, October 2, 2003.

2. George Tenet, At