Windswept_ The Story of Wind and Weather - Marq de Villiers [108]
Ozone depletion was without question human-caused; the chemicals that were destroying it were man-made, mostly containing chlorine and bromine such as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and halogen compounds, none of which occur naturally. Natural sulfurous emissions from volcanoes also had an effect—but only by combining with the industrial chemicals already in the air to form chemically active clouds that dangerously accelerated the ozone-depletion process.
But in 1987 a group of industrial countries led, perhaps ironically, by the United States, met in Montreal and signed the Montreal Protocol. This is one of the international community's greater successes: not only is the manufacture of CFCs being phased out (they are banned in most Western countries) but also the hole in the ozone layer is recovering. There was a blip in the story when it was discovered that some of the substitute chemicals—(hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), and per fluorocarbons (PFCs)—were themselves powerful greenhouse gases, but it was a blip that was swiftly overcome by further substitutions. 37 Among the lessons learned: The rich world caused the problem and must pay for the cleanup. And, secondly, that the poorer world must agree to cooperate (or at least not to make things worse) but is right to insist on both time and access to technology to help it adjust.38
Progress can be made, then.
Whatever we do to "fix" the problems we have caused, Ivan and his grim successors will still be conjured into being by Aristotle's "exhalations from the earth" and by the sun. Nor should we try to prevent that from happening, because success would have unforeseen consequences for the planetary climate. But at least it's possible for us not to make things worse. And we can learn to use what is there, what is, to our own ecological advantage. All we need is the wisdom to know what is advantageous and what isn't.
CHAPTER EIGHT
The Technology of Wind
Ivan's story: In the end, Ivan's eyewall just barely brushed the Cuban mainland, most of its central circulation staying offshore. It had taken yet another unexpected westward jog before turning north. The high-pressure ridge was proving more persistent than forecast, its weakness not as apparent. Nevertheless, with hurricane winds extending outwards go miles from the eye, and tropical storm winds 173 miles from the core, Ivan was a large storm and Cuba did not escape entirely. Pictures taken on a helicopter flightover the region a day later showed extensive damage to the popular scuba diving resort of Maria la Gorda, a favorite winter-time destination for paleskins from Canada, where several buildings had lost roofs and palm trees had been uprooted and scattered. Elsewhere, there was flooding and a small bridge and some roads were under water. There were no deaths or injuries to add to Ivan's fatality count, so far, of 68 (3g in Grenada, 18 in Jamaica, 4 in the Dominican Republic, 3 in Venezuela, 2 in the Cayman Islands, 1 in Tobago, 1 in Barbados). That this was a triumph of communist planning the tame Cuban media, for their part, had no doubts, though the news reports did mention both luck and the high-pressure ridge over which they professed no controls.
Ivan threaded its way through the Yucatan channel, and roared into the Gulf.
From a human perspective, this was about as benign a course as could have been hoped. A jog either way would have produced a death toll much higher.
The National Hurricane Center bulletin issued on Monday, September 13, predicted uclose to 20 knots of westerly shear affecting Ivan but relaxes this shear a bit at 24 hours and 36 hours before increasing it significantly." As a result, the intensity forecast showed a gradual weakening.
The track forecast was still for a turn northward, and after seventy-two hours turning due north or even northeast as Ivan approached the prevailing westerlies,