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Your Medical Mind_ How to Decide What Is Right for You - Jerome Groopman [129]

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benefited from intensive treatment. Doctors’ estimates were too optimistic and too pessimistic. A study of accuracy in predicting outcomes for patients with terminal illness who are being discharged from the hospital to hospice: Nicholas A. Christakis, Elizabeth B. Lamont, “Extent and determinants of error in physicians’ prognoses in terminally ill patients: Prospective cohort study,” Western Journal of Medicine 172 (2000), pp. 310–313.

205 The mortality probability models: Stanley Lemeshow et al., “Mortality probability models (MPM II) based on an international cohort of intensive care unit patients,” JAMA 270 (1993), pp. 2478–2486. The APACHE model: Task Force of the American College of Critical Care Medicine, Society of Critical Care Medicine, “Guidelines for intensive care unit admission, discharge, and triage,” Critical Care Medicine 27 (1999), pp. 633–638.

206 Further debate about how to define futility: David B. Waisel, Robert D. Truog, “The cardiopulmonary resuscitation-not-indicated order: Futility revisited,” Ann Intern Med 122 (1995), pp. 304–308; Richard S. Stein et al., “CPR-not-indicated and futility,” Ann Intern Med 124 (1996), pp. 75–77; Stuart J. Youngner, “Who defines futility?” JAMA 260 (1988), pp. 2094–2095; Sofia Moratti, “The development of ‘medical futility’: Towards a procedural approach based on the role of the medical profession,” Journal of Medical Ethics 35 (2009), pp. 369–372.

206 The essay by Dr. Veysman: Boris Veysman, “Shock me, tube me, line me,” Health Affairs 29 (2010), pp. 324–326. Counterpoint essays from physicians with different perspectives: Victoria Sweet, “Thy will be done: Think your living will takes care of everything? Maybe not,” Health Affairs 26 (2007), pp. 825–830; Victoria Sweet, “Code Pearl: In addition to full codes and DNRs, a physician calls for a new option that provides all life-prolonging treatments until death—and then a kind farewell,” Health Affairs 27 (2008), pp. 216–220.

207 The proposal from the Clinical Guidelines Committee of the American College of Physicians to use QALYs in health care reform: Douglas K. Owens et al., “High-value, cost-conscious health care: Concepts for clinicians to evaluate the benefits, harms, and costs of medical interventions,” Ann Intern Med 154 (2011), pp. 174–180. The caveats about setting a fixed cost to approve therapies: Michael K. Gusmano, Daniel Callahan, “Value for money: Use with care,” Ann Intern Med 154 (2011), pp. 207–208. This includes discussion of NICE. The critique of QALYs: Paul Dolan, “Developing methods that really do value the ‘Q’ in the QALY,” Health Economics, Policy and Law 3 (2008), pp. 69–77; Paul Dolan, “In defense of subjective well-being,” Health Economics, Policy and Law 3 (2008), pp. 93–95; Paul Dolan, Daniel Kahneman, “Interpretations of utility and their implications for the valuation of health,” Economic Journal 118 (2008), pp. 215–234; Daniel Kahneman, “A different approach to health state valuation,” special issue, Value in Health 12 (2009), pp. S16—S17. A defense of QALYs that we find unconvincing: Peter J. Neumann, “What next for QALYs?” JAMA (commentary) 305 (2011), pp. 1806–1807.

209 The use of narratives about a person’s life to help inform surrogate choices: Mark G. Kuczewski, “Commentary: Narrative views of personal identity and substituted judgment in surrogate decision making,” Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics 27 (1999), pp. 32–36; Jeffrey Blustein, “Choosing for others as continuing a life story: The problem of personal identity revisited,” Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics 27 (1999), pp. 20–31.

CONCLUSION

212 The contention that the art of medicine is passé, to be replaced by industrialized medicine, with physicians following operating manuals and adhering strictly to standardized protocols: Stephen J. Swensen et al., “Cottage industry to postindustrial care: The revolution in health care delivery,” NEJM 362 (2010), pp. E12(1)–E12(4); Robert H. Brook, “A physician = emotion + passion + science,” JAMA 304 (2010), pp. 2528–2529; David Leonhardt, “Making health care better,” New

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