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security advisers since the administration of John F. Kennedy were professors before becoming special assistant for national security affairs: McGeorge Bundy, Walter Rostow, Henry Kissinger, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Anthony Lake. Since Newsom called attention to this, another professor, Condoleezza Rice, has served in the same position. Newsom also calls attention to the fact that many academic scholars offered policy critiques and suggestions that were proven right in the long run.

530

For a discussion of these types of judgment and the importance of developing a better understanding of the relationship of analysis to judgment, see George, Bridging the Gap, chap. 2. See also the detailed innovative study, Stanley Renshon and Deborah Welch Larson, eds., Good Judgment in Foreign Policy: Theory and Application (Lanham, Md.: Rowman and Littlefield, 2003).

531

George Ball, “Lawyers and Diplomats,” address before the New York Lawyers’ Association, New York City, December 13, 1962; reprinted in Department of State, Bulletin, December 31, 1962, pp. 987-991.

532

The diagram is adapted from the one that appears in George, Bridging the Gap, p. 133.

533

This discussion draws directly from ibid., pp. 139-143.

534

Donald T. Campbell, “Qualitative Knowing in Action Research,” paper given at the American Psychological Association meetings in New Orleans, La., September 1974, p. 4; and James March, “Decision Making Perspective,” in Andrew H. Vandeven, ed., Perspectives in Organizational Design and Behavior (New York: Wiley, 1981).

535

A conditional generalization is plausible if it is not contradicted by available evidence and if at least some evidence supports it. For a detailed discussion of the limits of scientific verification in social science and the need to settle for “acceptable” verification, see Charles E. Lindblom, Inquiry and Change (New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press, 1990), chap. 10.

536

David S. McLellan, “Comparative ‘Operational Codes’ of Recent U.S. Secretaries of State: Dean Acheson,” paper delivered at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 1969, pp. 18, 28.

537

George Downs, “Arms Races and War,” p. 75.

538

See Alexander L. George and Richard Smoke, Deterrence in American Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), chap. 18, “Patterns of Deterrence Failure: A Typology.” For a detailed discussion of this study, see the Appendix, “Studies That Illustrate Research Design.”

539

Alexander L. George, ed., Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1991), pp. 545-553.

540

Amitai Etzioni and Frederick Dubow, eds., Comparative Perspectives: Theories and Methods (Boston: Little, Brown, 1970), pp. 207-208.

541

For a more comprehensive listing of social science research that contributes to policy, see, for example, Fostering Human Progress: Social Science and Behavioral Science Research Contributions to Public Policy (Washington, D.C.: Consortium of Social Science Associations, 2001).

542

The importance of conceptual clarification and refinement has been persuasively emphasized by David Collier in several recent publications, including: David Collier and James Mahoney, “Conceptual Stretching Revisited: Adapting Categories in Comparative Analysis,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 87, No. 4 (December 1993), pp. 845-855; and David Collier and Steven Levitsky, “Democracy with Adjectives: Conceptual Innovation in Comparative Research,” World Politics, Vol. 49, No. 3 (April 1997), pp. 430-451. Also see David Laitin, “Disciplining Political Science,” American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, No. 2 (June 1995), pp. 454-456.

543

Robert S. Litwak, Rogue States and U.S. Foreign Policy: Containment After the Cold War (Washington, D.C.: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, distributed by Johns Hopkins University Press, 2000).

544

Newsom, “Foreign Policy and Academia.”

545

Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict, Preventing Deadly Conflict (New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, December