China's Trapped Transition_ The Limits of Developmental Autocracy - Minxin Pei [26]
At the theoretical level, one can construct an argument that incorporates the insights from the theories of democratization, economic reform, and predatory state to explain the phenomenon of trapped transitions.
Gradual democratic transitions in post-totalitarian regimes face higher hurdles than those in authoritarian regimes. The connection between economic development and political liberalization is likely to be weak in these regimes because the initial conditions are far more adverse. The institutionalized curbs on the power of the ruling elites in a post-totalitarian regime are negligible. The ruling elites thus have far greater ability to defeat societal challenges. The presence of the post-totalitarian ruling party in state bureaucracies, economic entities, the military, and the judiciary provides it with the instant ability to convert political monopoly into economic rents during economic transition. Consequently, economic growth, rather than creating exits for peaceful withdrawal from power and lowering the costs of political transition, may perversely increase the stakes of exiting power because the ruling elites risk losing not only political power, but also economic rents. In addition, such rents become more valuable in an open and fast-growing economy, and, more important, the material wealth accurnulated by the ruling elites can be consumed openly, extravagantly, and without fear when the prereform codes of austerity are no longer operative. Therefore, even though economic growth may have a long-run positive impact on democratization, its short-run impact can be decidedly negative.
Gradualist transitions can further help entrench the post-totalitarian party-state and thwart efforts to both deepen market reforms and initiate democratic transition. Gradualism allows the ruling elites to make selective withdrawals and maintain their control in the most lucrative high-rent sectors; this development tends to make the ruling elites even less inclined to give up political power during transition. The control over sectors with rich rents also facilitates the emergence of -political alliances with stakes in a semireformed system but with no interest in political reform, as the ruling elites use such control to co-opt emerging social elites individually, include them in a collusive network of rent-sharing, and preempt potential political challengers. To the extent that initial reform efforts may be successful, gradualist reforms buy the regime a new, albeit temporary, lease on life, removing the pressures for political reform. Gradualism becomes eventually unsustainable because of the problem of dissipation of rents. The regime’s strategy of protecting rents in key sectors ultimately fails when such rents are distributed and consumed by the agents of the regime, critically weakening the health of the economy.
However appealing the concept of a developmental state, successful economic development under neoauthoritarianism may be the exception. A self-restrained developmental state can materialize only under rare circumstances that force the ruling elites to choose between curbing their predatory appetite or risking their own survival, a choice that is not always correctly made. In post-totalitarian political systems where the ruling elites possess overwhelming advantages vis-à-vis societal oppositions, operate under ineffective institutional restraints on their power, and face no credible external threat, the state is most likely a grabbing hand, not a helping hand. Thus, despite its promarket rhetoric