China's Trapped Transition_ The Limits of Developmental Autocracy - Minxin Pei [27]
TWO
Democratizing China?
PERHAPS THE MOST intriguing question regarding political development in the post-Mao era is why China has not taken significant steps toward democratization despite more than two decades of unprecedented economic modernization. Indeed, during the mid-1980s, with economic reform barely off the ground and encountering strong resistance from conservatives inside the regime, senior CCP leaders appeared more tolerant and permitted more public discussion on sensitive issues such as political reform. In contrast, since the mid-1990s, when economic reform became irreversible and its impact had raised the standard of living several fold, the regime has adopted an even more conservative political stance toward democratization, permitting no public discussion on political reform and maintaining a policy of zero-tolerance toward dissent. On the surface, the CCP’s experience with the Tiananmen debacle and the impact of the collapse of the communist regimes in the former Soviet bloc seemed to have hardened the leadership’s stance against political reform.1 But there were deeper causes behind the CCP’s renewed resistance to political liberalization. The short-term impact of rapid economic growth on democratization may be negative because such growth increases the value of political power (hence making it harder for the rulers to relinquish it), reduces the pressure for political opening, and provides rulers with more resources to co-opt new social groups and repress the opposition.
In this chapter, this analytical framework will be applied to an examination of the history of political reform during the Mao era. The chapter will first address the question of how the ruling elites viewed the issue of political reform; it then will review and evaluate the three most important institutional reforms—the strengthening of the National People’s Congress (NPC), legal reform, and village elections—that have been viewed as essential steps toward democratization. I will finally examine the CCP’s strategy of illiberal adaptation, which relies both on the state’s repressive capacity and the regime’s growing economic resources in containing societal challenges and maintaining its political monopoly in a rapidly modernizing society.
Political Reform: The Ruling Elites’ Views
Many senior Chinese leaders recognized the need for political reform during the initial phase of economic reform for two reasons. First, as survivors of the Cultural Revolution, they were determined to prevent a similar event from happening. Second, they recognized that restructuring the political system would be needed to ensure the success of economic reform and modernization.2 To be sure, there was a subtle difference, even among those who viewed political reform as an instrument of advancing economic reform. Deng Xiaoping, for example, understood the benefits of political reform mainly in terms of reducing bureaucracy and increasing efficiency. Zhao Ziyang, however, believed that as Chinese economic reform deepened, the redistribution of power and interests would inevitably trigger conflicts. If such conflicts were not resolved timely, they would accumulate and produce serious consequences. Therefore, Zhao’s plan was to use political reform to resolve such conflicts and pave the way for deepening economic: reform. Neither Dcng nor Zhao sufficiently appreciated that political reform itself would initiate new conflict because the power to block economic reforms was entrenched within the political system itself.3
Political Reform According to Deng Xiaoping
Deng articulated