Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [110]
What, then, constitutes good intelligence? This is no small question, and one is reminded of Justice Potter Stewart’s response when he was asked to define pornography: “I can’t define it, but I know it when I see it.” Good intelligence has something of the same indistinct quality. At least four qualities come to mind. Good intelligence is• Timely. Getting the intelligence to the policy maker on time is more important than waiting for every last shred of collection to come in or for the paper to be pristine, clean, and in the right format. The timeliness criterion runs counter to the first of Kent’s three wishes: to know everything. And time can change the perspective on an occurrence. Napoleon died on St. Helena in May 1821; word of his death did not reach Paris until July. Charles Maurice de Talleyrand, once Napoleon’s foreign minister and later one of his foes, was dining at a friend’s house when they heard of Napoleon’s passing. The hostess exclaimed, “What an event!” Talleyrand corrected her: “It is no longer an event, Madam, it is news.”
• Tailored. Good intelligence focuses on the specific information needs of the policy maker, to whatever depth and breadth are required, but without extraneous material. This must be done in a way that does not result in losing objectivity or politicizing the intelligence. Tailored intelligence products (those responding to a specific need or request) are among the most highly prized by policy makers.
• Digestible. Good intelligence has to be in a form and of a length that allow policy makers to grasp what they need to know as easily as possible. The requirement tends to argue in favor of shorter intelligence products, but it is primarily meant to stress that the message be presented clearly so that it can be readily understood. This does not mean that the message cannot be complex, or even incomplete. But whatever the main message is, the policy maker must be able to understand it with a minimum of effort. Being succinct and clear is an important skill for analysts to learn. Writing a good two-page memo is much more difficult than writing a five-page memo on the same subject. As Mark Twain observed in a letter to a friend, “I am writing you a long letter because I don’t have time to write a short one.”
• Clear regarding the known and the unknown. Good intelligence must convey to the reader what is known, what is unknown, and what has been filled in by analysis, as well as the degree of confidence in the material. The degree of confidence is important because the policy maker must have some sense of the relative firmness of the intelligence. All intelligence involves risk by the very nature of the information being dealt with. The risk should not be assumed by the analysts alone but should be shared with their clients.
Objectivity was not one of the major factors defining good intelligence. Its omission was not an oversight. The need for objectivity is so great and so pervasive that it should be taken as a given. If the intelligence is not objective, then none of the other attributes—timeliness, digestibility, clarity—matters.
Accuracy also is not a criterion. Accuracy is a more difficult standard for assessing intelligence than might be imagined. Clearly, no one wants to be wrong, but everyone recognizes the impossibility of infallibility. Given these limits, what accuracy standard should be used? One hundred percent is too high and 0 percent is too low. Splitting the difference at 50 percent accuracy is still unsatisfactory. Thus, what is left is a numbers game—something more than 50 percent and less than 100 percent.
The issue of accuracy became more demanding in the aftermath of September 11 and the onset of the Iraq war. The political system seemed to have decreasing tolerance for the imperfection that is inherent in intelligence analysis. Even though all observers understand that perfection is not possible, each