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Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [112]

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and some specific areas of intelligence analysis that have been particularly important. The CIA has declassified many of its estimates on the Soviet Union and related issues (see chap. 11).

Adams, Sam. “Vietnam Cover-Up: Playing with Numbers; A CIA Conspiracy against Its Own Numbers.” Harper’s (May 1975): 41-44, ff.

Bell, J. Dwyer. “Toward a Theory of Deception.” International journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 16 (summer 2003): 244-279.

Berkowitz, Bruce. “The Big Difference between Intelligence and Evidence.” Washington Post, February 2, 2003, B1.

Caldwell, George. Policy Analysis for Intelligence. Report by the Central Intelligence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence. Washington, D.C.: CIA, 1992.

Clark, Robert M. Intelligence Analysis: Estimation and Prediction. Baltimore: American Literary Press, 1996.

Cooper. Jeffrey R. Curing Analytic Pathologies: Pathways to Improved Intelligence Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Center for the Study of Analysis, CIA, December 2005.

Davis, Jack. The Challenge of Opportunity Analysis. Report by the Central Intelligence Agency, Center for the Study of Intelligence. Washington, D.C.: CIA,1992.

Ford, Harold P. Estimntive Intelligence. McLean, Va.: Association of Former Intelligence Officers, 1993.

————. Estimative Intelligence: The Purposes and Problems of National Intelligence Estimating. Washington, D.C.: Defense Intelligence College, 1989.

Gates, Robert M. “The CIA and American Foreign Policy.” Foreign Affairs 66 (winter 1987-1988): 215-230.

Gazit, Shlomo. “Estimates and Fortune-Telling in Intelligence Work.” International Security 4 (spring 1980): 36-56.

————. “Intelligence Estimates and the Decision-Maker.” International Security 3 (July 1988): 261-287.

George, Roger Z. “Fixing the Problem of Analytical Mind-Sets: Alternative Analysis.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17 (fall 2004): 385-404.

George, Roger Z., and James B. Bruce, eds. Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations. Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2008.

Heuer, Richards J., Jr. Psychology of Analysis. Washington, D.C.: Central Intelligence Agency, History Staff, 1999. (Available at www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csipublications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis.)

Johnson. Loch K. “Analysis for a New Age.” Intelligence and National Security 11 (October 1996): 657-671.

Lockwood, Jonathan S. “Sources of Error in Indications and Warning.” Defense Intelligence journal 3 (spring 1994): 75-88.

Lowenthal, Mark M. “The Burdensome Concept of Failure.” In Intelligence Policy and Process. Ed. Alfred C. Maurer and others. Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1985.

MacEachin, Douglas J. The Tradecraft of Analysis: Challenge and Change in the CIA. Washington, D.C.: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, 1994.

Nye, Joseph S. Estimating the Future. Washington, D.C.: Consortium for the Study of Intelligence, 1994.

Pipes, Richard. “Team B: The Reality behind the Myth.” Commentary 82 (October 1986).

Price, Victoria. The DCI’s Role in Producing Strategie Intelligence Estimates. Newport, R.I.: U.S. Naval War College, 1980.

Reich, Robert C. “Reexamining the Team A-Team B Exercise.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 3 (fall 1989): 387-403.

Rieber, Steven. “Intelligence Analysis and Judgmental Calibration.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 17 (spring 2004): 97-112.

Stack, Kevin P. “A Negative View of Comparative Analysis.” International journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 10 (winter 1998): 456-464.

Steury, Donald P., ed. Sherman Kent and the Hoard of National Estimates. Washington, D.C.: Center for the Study of Intelligence, History Staff, CIA, 1994.

Turner, Michael A. “Setting Analytical Priorities in U.S. Intelligence.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence 9 (fall 1996): 313-336.

U.S. House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. lntelligence Support to Arms Control. 100th Cong., 1st sess., 1987.

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