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that systems and institutions are the major building blocks, leaders and their personalities matter, even in democracies. Gorbachev, again, stands out as an excellent example, as does Deng Xiaoping, Fidel Castro, Margaret Thatcher, and Ronald Reagan. Interestingly, one of the best sources of intelligence on these leaders are the leaders or senior officials who deal with them, as most intelligence analysts will have little opportunity to observe the leaders close up or to interact with them. To mine this source requires the policy makers to be willing to set aside some time to be debriefed by their intelligence officers, which appears to happen quite rarely. And, even if it does, the intelligence officer must take into account the subjectivity of the source answering the questions. Still, the CIA, for example, has a branch that studies and produces “assessments of foreign leaders and other key decision-makers in the political, economic, science and technology, social and cultural fields,” as a recent job posting on the CIA Web site advertised. Leadership analysis is a somewhat controversial endeavor, between those who believe it can be a successful activity and those who remain skeptical of doing this type of analysis from a fairly long distance and with little or no personal contacts. It is also important to remember that an actor can be rational without sharing a common rationality. Then, too, there are those actors who are not entirely rational by anyone’s standards.

REGIONAL STABILITY. It is also important to think about the core national security issues that may suggest which nations are important to watch more closely. As was noted in chapter 2, the United States is a status quo power. This essentially requires the intelligence services to be alert to states that seek either violent or sudden alterations to the status quo, as well as states whose relative stability or instability can affect the international status quo. At present, those states that appear to seek a true change in the international status quo do not possess multiple levers of power: Iran, North Korea, Venezuela. But each state controls at least one lever—weapons or oil, or in the case of Iran, both. There are also states that serve as platforms for these antistatus quo states, such as Cuba and Syria, neither of which has many significant levers of power beyond geographic position and a willingness to exploit regional opportunities. It is interesting that the DNI has put Cuba and Venezuela together under one of the mission managers, signaling this as an area of major collection and analytical emphasis. Again, one must consider these states not only as potential threats to U.S. interests but also to broader regional interests. This suggests a number of flashpoints: Venezuela-Colombia; North Korea-South Korea; Iran and Syria in Iraq or Israel.

The most obvious role of intelligence in a regional crisis is warning, both for the immediate participants and for other states that may have interests in the outcome. But intelligence can also serve to diffuse a regional crisis by allaying false perceptions of the other side’s activities. This happened in the early 1990s, when India and Pakistan appeared to be moving inexorably toward another war. DCI Robert Gates (1991-1993) shared imagery with both sides, showing their actual troop dispositions. Gates was able to give a sense of assurance when none would have been possible on a bilateral basis.

Several states likely fall into the category of those whose sudden change in stability could be problematic. This would include Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt. The main issues here are internal stability and cohesion but we once again run into the problems noted above in successfully collecting against and analyzing this problem. This is also an area where the intelligence is not likely to suggest many ways in which U.S. policy can influence the outcome successfully. For example, the United States urges reform on many of its Arab and Muslim allies on a fairly constant basis. In most people’s minds reform should