Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [52]
COLLECTION SYNERGY. One of the major advantages of having multiple means of collection is that one system or discipline can provide tips or clues that can be used to guide collection by other systems. For major requirements, more than one type of collection is used; the collectors are designed to be cooperative when the system is working correctly. The goal of the U.S. intelligence community is to produce all-source intelligence, or fusion intelligence—in other words, intelligence based on as many collection sources as possible to compensate for the shortcomings of each and to profit from their combined strength. Under the 2004 IRTPA, the DNI is responsible for ensuring that “finished intelligence [is] based upon all sources of available intelligence.” This is a somewhat odd provision, akin to a DNI collection seal of approval. It is also ambiguous, as it can be interpreted to mean all sources that should be brought to bear on an issue or all the sources that are available, taking into account other priorities as well. All-source intelligence reflects collection in depth. At the same time, the diverse array allows collection managers to increase collection in breadth, that is, to increase the number of issues being covered, albeit with less depth for a particular issue.
An excellent example of collection synergy is the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Although analysts were slow to understand that Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev was willing to make such a risky move as deploying medium- and intermediate-range missiles in Cuba, the intelligence community brought a variety of collection means to bear. Anti-Fidel Castro Cubans still on the island provided some of the first reliable evidence that missiles were being deployed. A human source provided the data that targeted the U-2 flights over a trapezoid-shaped area bounded by four towns in western Cuba. Imagery then provided crucial intelligence about the status of the missile sites and the approximate time before completion, as did Soviet technical manuals turned over to the United States by Soviet colonel Oleg Penkovsky, a spy in the employ of the United States and Britain. Imagery and naval units gave the locations of Soviet ships bringing the missiles to the almost-completed sites. Finally, Penkovsky provided the United States with excellent authoritative information on the state of Soviet strategic forces, which indicated overwhelming U.S. superiority.
THE VACUUM CLEANER PROBLEM. Those familiar with U.S. technical collection systems often note that they have more in common with vacuum cleaners than they do with microscopes. In other words, collectors sweep up a great deal of information, within which may be the intelligence being sought. This problem is sometimes also referred to as wheat versus chaff. Roberta Wohlstetter, in her classic study Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision, refers to the problem as noise versus signals, noting that the signals one wishes to receive and to know are often embedded in a great deal of surrounding noise.
No matter which metaphor one uses, the issue is the same: Technical collection is less than precise. The problem underscores the importance of processing and exploitation.
The issue then becomes how to extract the desired intelligence from the mountain of information. One answer would be to increase the number of analysts who deal with the incoming intelligence, but that raises additional demands on the budget. Another possible response, even less palatable, would be to collect less. But, even then, there would be no assurance that the “wheat” could be found within the smaller volume being collected.
THE PROCESSING AND EXPLOITATION IMBALANCE. A large imbalance exists between the amount