Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [56]
LIMITATIONS OF SATELLITES. All satellites are limited by the laws of physics. Most orbiting systems can spend only a limited time over any target. On each successive orbit the satellites shift to a slightly different coverage pattern. (Satellites correspond to the motion of the earth, as they are trapped within Earth’s gravitational pull. Thus, satellites’ orbits move from west to east with each pass.) Moreover, satellites travel in predictable orbits. Potential targets of a satellite can derive the orbit from basic knowledge about its launch and initial orbit. For a variety of reasons, some individuals and organizations attempt to publicize this information. This enables nations to take steps to avoid collection—in part by engaging in activities they wish to keep secret only when satellites are not overhead.
Satellites that are in geosynchronous orbit stay over the same spot on Earth at all times. But to do this they must be placed twenty-two thousand miles above Earth. The great distance between the collectors and their targets raises the problem of transmitting collected information back to Earth. Collection can be precise only up to a point, thus explaining the vacuum cleaner problem. Satellites can also be flown in sun-synchronous orbits, that is, moving in harmony with the Earth’s rotation so as to always remain where there is daylight, but this produces an easily tracked orbit. Sun-synchronous orbit is better for commercial satellites than for national imagery satellites.
Another interesting orbit is the “Molniya” orbit, named after the Soviet communications satellites that first used them. The Molniya orbit is highly elliptical, coming close to the Earth over the southern hemisphere (perhaps 300 miles) and then much further away from the Earth over the northern hemisphere (perhaps 25,000 miles). In this pattern, a satellite revolves around the Earth twice in a day. It is important to remember that the Earth’s land mass is not evenly distributed; much more of it lies north of the equator than south of it. The advantage of the Molniya orbit is that it moves very quickly across the southern hemisphere, where there are likely to be fewer targets, because it is close to the Earth’s gravitational pull, but then “lingers” as it moves across the northern hemisphere when it is further away. Approximately eight of the twelve hours of one revolution will be spent over the northern hemisphere. This allows increased collection over the larger area of land. But the satellite’s greater distance over the northern hemisphere also dictates that it does broad area collection as opposed to close-in or “spot” collection.
THE STOVEPIPES PROBLEM. Intelligence practitioners often talk about collection “stovepipes.” This term is applied to two characteristics of intelligence collection. First, all of the technical collection disciplines—geospatial intelligence (GEOINT, formerly imagery or IMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), and measurement and signatures intelligence (MASINT)—and the nontechnical human intelligence (HUMINT), or espionage, have end-to-end processes, from collection through dissemination. (Open-source intelligence—OSINT—should have end-to-end processes, but it does not.) Thus, a pipeline forms from beginning to end. Second, the collection disciplines are separate from one another and are often competitors. The INTs sometimes vie with one another to respond to requests for intelligence—largely as a means of ensuring continuing funding levels—regardless of which INT is best suited to provide the required intelligence. Often, several INTs respond, regardless of their applicability to the problem, thus creating the swarm ball. Within the U.S. intelligence system, a variety of positions and fora have been designed to coordinate the INTs, but no