Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [82]
The real importance of the requirements process may lie in giving the intelligence community some sense of priority among the requirements. Formal discussions about priorities between senior policy makers and intelligence officers tend to revolve around relative degrees of importance instead of issues that have been added to the priorities list or overlooked. Assigning priorities is especially important and difficult in the absence of a single overwhelming issue, as was the case from roughly 1991 (the end of the Soviet Union) until 2001. When several issues are considered to be of roughly equal importance, no single one of them has priority. However, this seeming lack of focus may reflect the reality of national security interests. In such a circumstance the intelligence managers must then make critical decisions about the allocation of collection and analytical resources among several equally important issues.
Another issue in setting priorities is the fact that very few, if any, national security issues or threats are completely independent issues. Instead, there are interconnections among many issues. For example, the nexus between terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is a constant concern. Terrorism is also connected to narcotics, as narcotics trafficking is a primary means of funding terrorism. In addition, terrorism and other transnational issues (crime, narcotics, human trafficking, etc.) thrive in failed states, which have little law and order or control over their borders. The issues in such failed states are not equally important, or threatening, but it is necessary to take into account the interconnections when determining priorities. Thus, a lesser issue may get more attention because of its relationship to a more pressing issue.
It is also important to understand that issues do not exist in an abstract realm: All issues have a geographic aspect. This may be broad or narrow but every issue can be tied to specific locations. In determining priorities, it may be useful to differentiate based on the importance of the geographic aspect of the issue. For example, drugs being produced in Afghanistan may be seen as more problematic than those produced in Southeast Asia because of the Afghan-Taliban-al Qaeda connection. This geographic differentiation may also be useful in determining which supporting issues are more or less important.
Finally, issues are not monolithic. Every nation in which the United States has intelligence interests comprises several issues (e.g., political, military, social, economic) that will be of varying importance depending on the nation and its relationship to the United States. For example, U.S. interest in the state of the British military is that of assessing the capabilities of a close ally. while in North Korea we focus on the capabilities of a potential enemy. Although both are capabilities issues, the basis of our intelligence interest in each is quite different. Similarly. when dealing with a transnational issue, such as terrorism, it is important to differentiate among the various groups, their capabilities, their locations, and their interrelationships. Not every group will pose the same level of threat or of interest. It is important for intelligence managers to be able to make these distinctions to achieve the optimal allocation of both collection and analytical resources, even when examining the same issues.
CURRENT VERSUS LONG-TERM INTELLIGENCE. The struggle between current