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By Root 571 0

Policy makers may view this increase—on the order of 300 percent—with alarm. Instead of presenting the new number with an explanation as to how it was derived, an analyst might be tempted to soften the blow. Perhaps a brief memo is issued, suggesting changes in production. Then a second memo, saying that the rate is more likely twenty to twenty-five missiles per year, and so on. until the policy maker sees a more acceptable analytical progression to the new number and not a sudden spike upward. Playing out such a scenario takes time, and it is intellectually dishonest. Intelligence products that are written on a recurring basis—such as certain types of national intelligence estimates—may be more susceptible than other products to this type of behavior. They establish benchmarks that can be reviewed more easily than, say, a memo that is not likely to be remembered unless the issue is extremely important and the shift is dramatic.

At the same time, there are risks inherent in sudden and dramatic shifts in analysis. In November 2007, the DNI released unclassified key judgments of a new national intelligence estimate (NIE) on Iran’s nuclear intentions and capabilities. The NIE estimated that Iran had ceased its weaponization program in 2003, reversing views held in a 2005 estimate. Officials explained that recently collected intelligence had led to the new position. But observers and commentators questioned why this had not been known earlier, failing to understand the nature of intelligence collection. Some wondered if the new conclusions were “compensation” (or penance) for the mistaken conclusions in the 2002 Iraq WMD estimate. And some wondered if the intelligence community was trying to prevent the Bush administration from using force against a recalcitrant Iran. Interestingly, few commentators took the NIE face value, accepting the possibility that analytic views had changed.

Although policy makers have taken retribution on analysts for sudden changes in estimates, more often than not the fear in the minds of analysts is greater than the likelihood of a loss of credibility. Much depends on the prior nature of the relationship between the analyst and the policy maker, the latter’s appreciation for the nature of the intelligence problem, and the intelligence community’s past record. If several revisions have been made in the recent past, there is reason to suspect a problem. If revision is an isolated phenomenon, it is less problematic. The nature of the issue, and its importance to the policy maker and the nation, also matters.

For example, the level of Soviet defense spending—then usually expressed as a percentage of gross national product (GNP)—was a key intelligence issue during the cold war. At the end of the Ford administration (1974-1977), intelligence estimates of Soviet GNP going to defense rose from a range of 6-7 percent to 13-14 percent, largely because of new data, new modeling techniques, and other factors unrelated to Soviet output. The revision was discomforting to the incoming Carter administration. In his inaugural address, Jimmy Carter signaled that he did not want to be constantly concerned with the Soviet issue, that he had other foreign policy issues to pursue. A more heavily armed Soviet Union was not good news. Carter prided himself on his analytical capabilities. When faced with the revised estimates, he reportedly chided the intelligence community, noting that they had just admitted to a 100 percent error in past estimates. That being the case, why should he believe the latest analyses?

Few intelligence products are written by just one analyst and then sent along to the policy client. Most have peer reviews and managerial reviews and probably the input of analysts from other offices or agencies. This is especially true for the intelligence products (analytical reports) that agencies call estimates in the United States or assessments in Australia and Britain. Participation of other analysts and agencies adds another dimension to the analytical process—bureaucratics—which brings various types