Intelligence_ From Secrets to Policy - Mark M. Lowenthal [92]
More likely than not, several agencies have strongly held and diametrically opposed views on key issues within an estimate. How should these be dealt with? The U.S. system in both intelligence and policy making is consensual. No votes are taken; no lone wolves are cast out or beaten to the ground. Everyone must find some way to agree. But if intellectual arguments fail, consensus can be reached in many other ways, few of which have anything to do with analysis.
• Back scratching and logrolling. Although usually thought of in legislative terms, these two behaviors can come into play in intelligence analysis. Basically, they involve a trade-off: “You accept my view on p. 15 and I’ll accept yours on p. 38.” Substance is not a major concern.
• False hostages. Agency A is opposed to a position being taken by Agency B but is afraid its own views will not prevail. Agency A can stake out a false position on another issue that it defends strongly, not for the sake of the issue itself, but so that it has something to trade in the back scratching and logrolling.
• Lowest-common-denominator language. One agency believes that the chance of something happening is high; another thinks it is low. Unless these views are strongly held, the agencies may compromise—a moderate chance—as a means of resolving the issue. This example is a bit extreme, but it captures the essence of the behavior—an attempt to paper over differences with words that everyone can accept.
• Footnote wars. Sometimes none of the other techniques works. In the U.S. estimative process, an agency can always add a footnote in which it expresses alternative views. Or more than one agency might add a footnote, or agencies may take sides on an issue. This can lead to vigorous debates as to whose view appears in the main text and whose in the footnote.
In U.S. practice, an estimate may refer to “a majority of agencies” or a “minority.” This is an odd formulation. First, it is vague. How many agencies hold one view or the other? Is it a substantial majority (say. eleven of the sixteen agencies) or a bare one? Second, the formulation strongly implies that the view held by the majority of agencies is more likely the correct one, although no formal or informal votes are taken in the NIE process. The British practice is different. In Britain, if all agencies participating in an assessment cannot agree, then the views of each are simply laid out. This may be more frustrating for the policy maker reading the assessment, but it avoids false impressions about consensus or correct views based on the vague intellectual notion of a majority.
One critique of the intelligence community’s analysis of Iraqi WMD was the absence of different views and the problem of groupthink. The Senate Intelligence Committee held that the analysts did not examine their assumptions rigorously enough and thus lapsed too easily into agreement. The case highlights a conundrum for managers and analysts, particularly those involved in estimates. As a rule, policy makers prefer consensus views, which save them from having to go through numerous shades of opinion on their own. After all, isn’t that what the intelligence community is supposed to be doing? Thus, there has always been some impetus to arrive at a consensus, if possible. In the aftermath of Iraq, however, most consensus views—even if arrived at out of genuine agreement—could be viewed with suspicion. How does one determine, when reading intelligence analysis, the basis on which a consensus has been achieved? How does one determine if it is a true meeting of minds or some bureaucratic lowest common denominator?
ANALYTICAL STOVEPIPES. Collection stovepipes emerge because the separate collection disciplines are managed independently and often are rivals to one another. Analytical stovepipes also appear in the U.S. all-source community. The three all-source analytical groups—the CIA Directorate of Intelligence, Defense Intelligence Agency Directorate of Intelligence, and the State Department Bureau of Intelligence