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By Root 717 0

and Research (INR)—exist to serve specific policy makers. They also come together on a variety of community analyses, most often the NIEs. Efforts to manage or, even more minimally, to oversee and coordinate their activities reveal a stovepipe mentality not unlike that exhibited by the collection agencies. The three all-source agencies tend to have a wary view of efforts by officials with community-wide responsibilities to deal with them as linked parts of a greater analytical whole. The analytical agencies manifest this behavior less overtly than do the collectors, so it is more difficult to recognize. It thus may be surprising to some people, perhaps more so than when collectors exhibit this behavior. After all, each of the collectors operates in a unique field, with a series of methodologies that are also unique. The analytical agencies, however, are all in the same line of work, often concerned with the same issues. But bureaucratic imperatives and a clear preference for their responsibilities in direct support of their particular policy clients, as opposed to interagency projects, contribute to analytical stovepipes.

All of these behaviors can leave the impression that the estimative process—or any large-group analytical efforts—is false intellectually. That is not so. However, it is also not a purely academic exercise. Other behaviors intrude, and more than just analytical truths are at stake. The estimative process yields winners and losers, and careers may rise and fall as a result.

ANALYTICAL ISSUES

In addition to the mind-set and behavioral characteristics of analysts, several issues within analysis need to be addressed.

COMPETITIVE VERSUS COLLABORATIVE ANALYSIS. As important as the concept of competitive analysis is to U.S. intelligence, a need has been seen to bring together analysts of agencies or disciplines to work on major ongoing issues, in addition to the collaborative process of NIEs. DCI Robert M. Gates (1991-1993) thus created centers, most of which focused on transnational issues—terrorism, nonproliferation, narcotics, and so on.

The intelligence community also formed task forces to deal with certain issues; among these was the Balkans task force, which has operated since the 1990s, monitoring the range of issues related to the breakup of Yugoslavia.

The 9/11 Commission (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States) recommended organizing all analysis around either regional or functional centers. The 2004 intelligence law mandated the establishment of the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC), which was basically an expansion of the Terrorism Threat Integration Center that DCI George J. Tenet (1997-2004) had created. The law also required that the DNI examine the utility of creating a National Counterproliferation Center, which was done, and gives the DNI the authority to create other centers as necessary. The problem with the center approach for all analysis is that it becomes somewhat inflexible. Inevitably, some issues or some nations do not fit easily into the center construct. What happens to them? Also, although creating a center is easy, centers—like all other offices—do not like to share or lose resources. Centers therefore run counter to the desire for analytic workforce agility. To date, centers have been organized along functional lines and are staffed by analysts who tend to be more expert in the issue than in the national or regional context within which that issue has been raised. A functional center therefore runs the risk of providing technical analysis that is divorced from its political context. For example, analyzing the state of WMD development in a nation is not enough. One should also analyze the internal or regional political factors driving the program, as these will give important indicators as to its purpose and scope. Being housed in a center does not preclude a functional analyst from seeking out his or her regional counterparts. Analysts do this on a regular basis. But it requires some effort and can be dropped during the press of the