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Countermeasures: Zach Chesser’s jihadist career was less than exemplary, but he publicly articulated a subject that is certainly being discussed in private— how to foil established counterterrorism tactics. Jihadists have not caught up with advances in law enforcement and intelligence techniques, but we can’t assume we will retain the edge, particularly as it regards online security. Al Qaeda and its allies have almost always operated on an open-source basis, especially since September 11. Jihadist forums have until recently put a premium on accessibility over security. Arrests based on online intelligence gathering may inspire jihadists to get creative about protecting themselves and the identities of the forums’ members.7 Small steps have already been taken in that direction. In 2008, for example, al Qaeda–linked militants introduced military-grade encryption software customized for terrorist use.8 A few talented terrorist hackers could conceivably change the balance of power online. For now, though, the advantage remains decisively with the West. Another concern is that as new technologies continually roll out, unforeseen innovations may appear that render surveillance more difficult.

Reconstitution of al Qaeda’s training camps: Al Qaeda’s training camp structure was severely disrupted by the invasion of Afghanistan, but there are troubling signs that these camps may be enjoying a renaissance on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, in Yemen under the auspices of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and in Somalia, in coordination with both Al Shabab and the core al Qaeda.9 Rank amateurism was a defining characteristic for the wave of American jihadists exposed in 2009 and 2010. Even an incremental improvement in the training and the professionalism of the current generation of American terrorists could exponentially increase their destructive power. On the plus side, it’s very difficult to travel to a region where advanced terrorist training takes place without popping up on somebody’s intelligence radar screen.

The numbers game: No one really knows how many Americans have been genuinely radicalized through online and other sources. All of our best estimates are simply guesses, but the number is almost certainly measured in thousands. Not all of those who have been radicalized would directly support an act of violence. As the stories in this book show, there’s no single factor most likely to precipitate a radical thinker into a radical actor. An event of sufficient magnitude—along the lines of the Bosnia war—could tip a large number of these talkers into actors in a very short amount of time. Even allowing for continued amateurism in the ranks of American terrorists, this has the potential to unleash chaos. Nine times out of ten, a trained sniper on the rooftop will kill more people than a lunatic with a shotgun running down the street, but the lunatic is still dangerous. And ten lunatics on the sidewalk at one time are more dangerous than the sniper.

As we move forward, we must do so with an understanding of how American jihadists are created and how they develop over time. It’s easy to reduce these men to caricatures, to demonize them without listening to them, and to ignore what they say when their words do not fit our expectations. To listen carefully and critically, to acknowledge their stories, is not to excuse their actions. Understanding why Americans take up the banner of jihad is the first step to finding solutions.

As the extremists evolve, so too must the relationship between Americans and mainstream American Muslims. America’s most valuable asset in combating extremism has been truth. Jihadist idealogues—and even some mainstream American Muslim leaders—insist the United States has declared war against Islam. That claim has proved false, even in the dark days immediately after September 11.

But ten years later, we find the nation poised at a perilous juncture. The 2010 controversy over a proposed Islamic center in New York, a few blocks from Ground Zero, put an exclamation point on