Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [196]
The complex ownership disputes intensified when a 1969 UN Economic Commission report indicated the possibility of large oil and natural gas reserves in the Diaoyutai Archipelago. The reserves, subsequently developed as the Chunxiao Field, became the flashpoint for a number of conflicts between the two nations, the most recent being the arrest by the Japanese of a Chinese fishing-boat captain in September 2010. The Chunxiao Field will surely be an area of increased conflict as future energy supply tightens.
Weaponry: The weapon systems and tactics used throughout the book are based on weapons in use in 2010 or scheduled to go into production after 2010. The Japanese destroyer Harakazi is modeled after the Hatakaze class destroyer. The Chinese vessels used in the Chunxiao Incident are current ships of the fleet. American aircraft described in future chapters, namely F-22s and F-35s, are currently in different stages of development and deployment.
The naval maneuver known as water-buzzing is not an actual tactic, but rather a fictitious maneuver resembling the deadly cat-and-mouse games played between Soviet and American aircraft and submarines in the heat of the Cold War. The use of aggressive tactics to test the response of an adversary is likely to continue based on previous Cold War tactics.
Deepwater oil platforms: As conventional dry-land oil becomes harder to find, new oil will be increasingly sought in deepwater basins at depths of ten thousand feet or more. The size, technology, and transportability of deepwater platforms will escalate to accommodate such needs. A self-propelled circular rig called Sevan Driller II, which began development in 2009 for drilling in up to 12,500 feet of water, is the latest sixth-generation platform being built by the Cosco Shipyard in Nantung, China. The Dragon II platform used in the Chunxiao area in this book is a fictitious megaplatform of this type.
Because of the new platforms’ cost, vulnerability, and exposure to terrorists, platform security measures will be ramped up. Security firms are now offering specialized rig security, including protection against boat-ramming incidents; the level of defensive capability suggested for the Dragon II platform is not improbable. The ultradeep sea mines deployed around the Dragon II are not known to be in the PLAN arsenal at this time, but the need for increased deepwater security would seem to make such developments feasible by 2017.
Climate satellites and exploration: The proposed NASA budget for fiscal years 2011 through 2015 suggests major initiatives geared toward building and launching robust climate-monitoring and research satellites. The intent is to provide a greater understanding of and confidence in the future course of climate-change. Working with organizations such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and supported by climate-research satellites scheduled for launch between 2011 and 2017, the intent is to provide more accurate climate predictions and a better foundation for future mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Chapter 2:
Economic malaise: An underlying theme of this book is the close correlation between the global economy and the accessibility and affordability of oil. In this context, it is assumed that by year-end 2012, surplus oil capacity will all but disappear and oil supply will fail to keep up with nominal demand thereafter. Unfortunately, alternative energy systems will not be in place to replace oil supply deficiencies. A 2010 Department of Defense strategic-planning report suggested that “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MB/D [million barrels of oil per day].” (Source: The Joint Operating Environment 2010 [“JOE-10 Report”], p. 29.)
With an inverse supply-and-demand curve, oil prices will increase. A disproportionately higher percentage of GDP will be allocated for oil,