Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [197]
While rising oil prices can be a significant drag on the economy, the fiscal and monetary policies of nations—including crushing debt loads, unfunded entitlement liabilities, devalued currencies, and a tendency to monetize debt via the printing press—will also make significant contributions to the global economic malaise, triggering high unemployment rates and semipermanent recessions.
Chapter 3:
Saudi Arabian government and succession: The modern nation of Saudi Arabia was established in 1931. Led by the House of Saud, a monarchy founded by Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, it shares power, in theory, with the religious elite. Sons of Abdul Aziz have thus far been the only men to serve as king or crown prince. However, as the sons of Abdul Aziz age, succession issues will become increasingly problematic.
The Basic Law, adopted in 1992, codified several elements of government and succession. The candidate pool was expanded to include all male descendants of Abdul Aziz ibn Saud—not just his sons—and established the Qur’an as the constitution of the country and Shari’a law as the basis for government. In October 2006 a committee of princes was established to vote on the eligibility of future kings and crown princes. Known as the Allegiance Institution, it further defined the covenants of succession.
Succession is very much in the Saudi Arabian picture today, as King Abdullah Abdul Aziz is eighty-seven years old, and all other likely successors are elderly as well. If the succession skips a generation and moves to a grandson of the founder, the field will widen and competition for the throne will intensify. The current House of Saud is estimated to include more than five thousand princes and princesses, and the future leadership of Saudi Arabia is an open question. Close ties between the Saudi government and the ulema (the clerical establishment) will also influence the future direction of Saudi Arabia.
Chapter 4:
Chinese military structure: The armed forces of the People’s Republic of China are referred to as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The navy is referred to as PLA Navy, or PLAN. The PLA is formally under the command of the Central Military Commission, which reports through a joint state government and party system, often chaired by the president.
Chapter 5:
A number of situational constructs in this chapter set the stage for the remainder of the book. The more noteworthy ones are as follows:
The New Cold War: Unlike the previous cold war between the U.S.S.R. and Western powers, the new cold war between China and the United States is being fought over resources and markets, not ideology. While less confrontational than the players in the previous cold war, China has become more assertive about protecting its economic interests. Current trends suggest the pendulum is swinging more in China’s favor, given its relative strength to the United States and other Western powers.
China is now a global economic juggernaut surpassing the United States in energy used, greenhouse gases emitted, and new automobiles sold. With GDP growth rates almost four times that of the United States’, China could approach GDP parity with America by the 2020s if current trajectories continue. (In fact, a recent IMF Report even suggested China could overtake the GDP of the United States as early as year-end 2016.) The concomitant requirements for more oil, commodities, freshwater, and world market shares will create a strain on finite global resources, causing price escalations and potential conflicts. In response, China