Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [199]
National security apparatus in the United States: Following the 9/11 attack and subsequent investigations of America’s intelligence failures, the intelligence-gathering apparatus of the United States was reorganized under the National Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004. A director of national intelligence was appointed to lead a sixteen-member intelligence community in directing the national intelligence program. Within this framework, presidents have tended to massage the National Security Council and Situation Room activities to best suit their styles. This book assumes that the U.S. intelligence apparatus was reorganized after a failed terrorist attempt to detonate an electromagnetic pulse bomb over the eastern seaboard in 2015 was made public. The restructured intelligence community in the book more closely resembles the intelligence apparatus existing prior to 2004.
Exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS): The definition of territorial waters has become increasingly important as a determinant for jurisdictional ownership of underwater resources (i.e., oil, natural gas, seabed mining, etc.) The standard practice today is to use the 200-nautical-mile EEZ line set out in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea. Unfortunately, ambiguities in UNCLOS and the EEZ definitions have left the door open for conflict, and disagreements are likely to worsen as resources become tighter. The Chunxiao Incident is but one example of a potential conflict over disputed territorial waters.
Perhaps no one has more at stake with respect to UNCLOS directions than the United States, which has vast coastal areas and a blue-water navy to protect its interests. Significant future conflicts are possible in the Arctic waters and other areas where climate-change has melted the sea ice, making underwater areas more accessible to seabed mining. Gulf Coast exploration—particularly off the Florida Keys—could also create an area of conflict.
Chapter 6:
American–Japanese Security Treaty: The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan was signed on January 19, 1960. It was a one-sided commitment whereby the United States agreed to assist Japan in case of armed attack on a Japanese-administered territory, but which precluded Japan from assisting America by virtue of their constitutional ban on overseas deployments of their armed forces. Over time, Japan has relied less on outsourcing their military protection to the United States. On February 19, 2009, the two countries signed a bilateral agreement to redeploy the III Marine Expeditionary Force from Okinawa to Guam. For purposes of this book, Japan’s trajectory away from dependence on American military power has been assumed to continue.
OPEC: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries began operations in January 1961. The organization was designed to safeguard its members’ interests both individually and collectively and to stabilize the oil markets and safeguard members’ revenue streams. Its 2011 membership was: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.
This oil powerhouse holds about 70 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and produces about a third of the world’s oil. Saudi Arabia is the driving force within the cartel, with the largest surplus capacity. As oil production by members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (see chapter 21 notes) and other non-OPEC countries continues to decline, OPEC is increasingly viewed as the prime source of new oil to meet future energy needs. Oil-production trajectories suggest that OPEC will garner an even larger market share—and with it a commensurate increase in power and leverage—as non-OPEC production declines.
In a sense, the world oil markets are betting the farm on OPEC’s ability and willingness to produce the oil necessary to meet future demand. The problems with this scenario are threefold: