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1) OPEC oil reserve numbers are not audited, and there is widespread concern that OPEC may not have the reserves they claim to have. This concern was exacerbated by the mysterious increase in oil reserves claimed by several OPEC producers toward the turn of the last century. 2) The capital required to explore and develop new oil discoveries is immense. Future production is predicated on the willingness of the national oil companies to undertake such ventures even though their revenue streams can be more easily secured through price increases. 3) The Saudis have hinted that they may slow or halt future oil exploration to save their oil wealth. Saudi Arabia, like other OPEC nations, will also continue to consume more of its own oil, leaving less available for export.

Chapter 8:

Religious extremism: This book has deliberately refrained from referring to a specific religious group or sect for two very important reasons: 1) there is an inherent danger in stereotyping and pigeonholing the multiple beliefs of any given religion into a one-size-fits-all box, and 2) to do so may lead to misrepresentations or, worse, disrespect for a specific religion. It is not unusual, for example, to see non-Arab sources refer to Wahhabism, the state religion of Saudi Arabia, as the underlying source for Saudi extremism. However, that is somewhat analogous to blaming John Calvin for all Christian extremism. Accordingly, references to a movement will not be ascribed to a specific sect, but rather in generic terms such as “extremists” or “fundamental extremists.” It is not the intent of this book to disrespect or make false representations about any religion, and anything leading to that interpretation is unintentional.

Saudi coup threats: There is tension in Saudi Arabia between the House of Saud and opponents of the regime who see it as being too closely aligned with Western powers and permissive of Western ways. Saudi leadership performs an intricate balancing act in managing their oil-based economy, which is dependent on alignments with foreign governments and markets, while being sensitive to domestic pressures calling for greater enforcement of fundamentalist beliefs and more widespread sharing of the national wealth. There have been coup attempts and uprisings in the past—even schisms within the royal family; a violent regime change at some future date is not outside the realm of possibility. Recent attempts by the Saudi regime to tone down advocates of extremism might, in fact, have the unintended effect of sowing the seeds for a future backlash.

The chain reaction of so-called Arab Spring uprisings throughout North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 revealed the vulnerability of many, if not all, autocratic regimes. Given the younger demographics of the Arab world, where almost a third of the population is under age thirty, frustrations with a perceived lack of freedom and economic opportunity made geopolitical instability almost a given. Interestingly, as recently as March 18, 2011, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia made a rare televised appearance to announce economic and social reforms, apparently aware of volatility in his own kingdom.

Dirty bombs: A dirty bomb is a radiologic dispersion device (RDD). It uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive material that can make areas uninhabitable for varying lengths of time. The half-life toxicity of the RDD—and thus, the amount of time an area is uninhabitable—depends on the radioactive substance used in the bomb. Gamma radiation-emitting materials such as plutonium-238, strontium-90, and cesium-137 are particularly toxic. With a highly toxic material that has been chemically or physically altered—weaponized—for maximum toxicity, an RDD’s radioactivity could render an area uninhabitable for decades.

Is a dirty-bomb scenario feasible? Consider this: in his book, Secrets of the Kingdom: The Inside Story of the Saudi–U.S. Connection (Random House, 2005), author Gerald Posner revealed that the Saudi government has a doomsday system in place, dubbed “petroleum scorched earth