Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [95]
“Overall,” Lin responded, “I think it was an accurate report, at least as far as I can see. I’m not entirely certain why we were given a copy; could it have been written for our consumption only? I don’t trust the CIA, but I must admit their facts and conclusions seemed to be on target.” Lin thought for a moment before continuing.
“The central proposition,” Lin continued in his no-nonsense voice, “seems to be whether or not we should work in collaboration or go our separate ways on the Saudi oil crisis. I have mixed feelings about a collaborative approach with the Americans, based on past experiences, and I would obviously have a hard time selling such an idea to our Politburo. I also think we’re in a much better position than the United States and its allies to go it alone.”
Lin paused as he considered again the possibility that the report was somehow meant to manipulate his decisions. It would be difficult to deliver misinformation within such a bare-bones report, but not impossible. Wang Peng broke into his thoughts.
“Would you agree, Mr. Chairman, that their estimates of our oil consumption patterns and SPR estimates are not far off? It seems to me like we might be able to go it alone for a longer period than suggested, but we could not get around the ultimate issues of access and affordability that plague the global oil market.”
“True, Peng. Also, the new Saudi regime has said nothing to assure us our oil supplies will continue uninterrupted. Generally speaking, a destabilized global environment is not in our best interests—we rely too heavily on foreign trade and the importation of raw materials from other countries. America and the Western powers are still our largest trading partners, and we would lose much if their economies were to crater as a result of oil starvation. I can see some attractive short-term gains in severing our diplomatic relationship with Israel and reducing ties to the West, but I’m not sure this is a wise long-term move. If we get all the oil we need, but lose the trading partners that buy our goods, what have we really gained? Who will buy our products, and what will we do with a large, unemployed workforce?”
“Let me add something that you may not know, Mr. Chairman,” Peng said cautiously. “I had an early morning briefing with our intelligence people and learned that King Mustafa announced in a broadcast earlier today that he was asking OPEC to cease sales of oil to any nonmember countries, including the Pacific Rim countries, meaning China. He also threatened retaliation against buyers and sellers attempting to make deals on the side—that rules out Iran or Iraq as well. Mustafa gave no specific timeframe for the oil embargo, but China was definitely included along with the Western powers in their threat.”
Startled, Lin Cheng considered this perplexing news. This is insane. Why would they do this? It would have made far more sense for the Saudis to widen the divide between China and the West by cutting off Western supplies while shipping oil to China. Instead, their new political dynamic almost forced the West and China to work together. Was it possible that the Saudi coup was driven exclusively by religious ideology? It was the only plausible explanation he could see for their actions. Illogical behavior always troubled him. How can one engage in a meaningful dialogue with such people?
“I’m having great difficulty in understanding the Saudi position, Peng. What do they hope to accomplish by alienating the entire world? Do they really think the world will stand by and watch its economies grind down to a virtual halt? Are they the modern-day version of the Japanese Kamikaze, willing to give their lives—and their country’s—for their cause? Would they sacrifice their nation’s economy, so totally dependent on oil revenues, or is this a giant blackmail scheme? I just don’t know.”
“Nor do I, Mr. Chairman. I can understand their hatred of the Western powers, but it makes absolutely no sense to alienate China as well