Lethal Trajectories - Michael Conley [96]
Nodding, Lin said, “We have worked so hard over the years to build relationships with oil-producing countries, and we have a good base of non-OPEC oil-producing partners like the Shanghai Cooperative. Iran and Iraq have been large suppliers of oil to China, as have several OPEC nations in Africa. Iran is probably one of the reasons the Saudis don’t want any side deals made within OPEC—we all know there’s no love lost between them and the Saudis. Iraq is sufficiently recovered from years of war and civil unrest to exploit this as a major oil producer, but I doubt they would risk everything they have gained to comply with Mustafa’s embargo request.”
Lin looked out over a breathtaking view, seeing nothing but his own thoughts. Wang, equally preoccupied, added, “We have invested heavily in Iraq, and I would agree with you based on my travels there. There’s little chance Iraq will align with the Saudis. The Shiites and Monotheists are not what I would call the best of friends.”
“I agree,” Lin stated. “OPEC is not the monolithic bloc they’d like us to believe they are, and I can see where the Saudis are concerned about side deals. But what can they do about it? In one sense, we could probably go it alone and find our own replacement sources of oil, but it’s a global oil market driven by supply and demand. While we may get around the access issue, there’s no way we can get around the affordability issue. If the new Saudi regime is successful in reducing supply, and our costs double and triple overnight, where will that leave us? It frightens me to think about the stranglehold a destabilized regime like Mustafa’s could have on the global economy. Is there any practical way of dealing with them?”
Wang thought on this before responding. “It is a nightmare situation. Do you think it’s possible to work out a collaborative arrangement with the Americans?”
“If you would have asked me that prior to the Chunxiao Incident,” Lin answered carefully, “my answer would have been an unequivocal no. Much has happened since then to cause me to rethink my position. First, it was a courageous move on the part of President Burkmeister to take an even-handed approach on Chunxiao. He incurred the wrath of Japan and vocal resistance in his own country for doing so. Second, I was impressed with the CIA report, regardless of motivation, and its strong advocacy of a collaborative approach against Mustafa. Third, I felt comfortable with the McCarty brothers and your strong recommendation attesting to their character. Last, the Saudi situation is troubling, and I’m not sure we’d ever be able to work with them. Taken collectively, Peng, the short answer is that we must seriously explore the possibility of a collaborative effort with the United States today.”
“Your conclusions make total sense to me,” Wang said, relief clear in his voice. “The Americans will undoubtedly ask us to maintain diplomatic relations with Israel. Is there some way we’d go along with this in exchange for their support on Chunxiao?”
Lin considered the greater geopolitical implications of his question before responding.
“I think Chunxiao is already yesterday’s news,” Lin replied, choosing his words as carefully as though they might become policy on the spot. “I could see it yesterday when we met with different delegations: Saudi Arabia and not Chunxiao was most on their minds. I see no real advantage in breaking diplomatic relations with Israel at this time. There may be cause for doing so later, particularly if they make an unprovoked attack on Saudi Arabia, but for now, there’s little to be gained.”
They continued their walk in silence, pondering the momentous challenges in front of them. Eventually Wang brought up another issue sure to come up that afternoon.
“There’s another issue to discuss, Mr. Chairman, and I know it is of personal concern to you. The recent climate-change data show that an irreversible