Mistakes Were Made - Carol Tavris [119]
22 Philip E. Tetlock (2005), Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. In clinical psychology, the picture is the same: There is an extensive scientific literature showing that behavioral, statistical, and other objective measures of behavior are consistently superior to the clinical insight of experts and their clinical predictions and diagnoses. See Robin Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl (1989), “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment,” Science, 243, pp. 1668–1674; and W. M. Grove and Paul E. Meehl (1996), “Comparative Efficiency of Formal (Mechanical, Algorithmic) and Informal (Subjective, Impressionistic) Prediction Procedures: The Clinical/Statistical Controversy,” Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2, pp. 293–323.
23 Elliot Aronson and J. Merrill Carlsmith (1962), “Performance Expectancy as a Determinant of Actual Performance,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 65, pp. 178–182. See also William B. Swann Jr. (1990), “To Be Adored or to Be Known? The Interplay of Self-Enhancement and Self-Verification,” in R. M. Sorrentino & E. T. Higgins (eds.), Motivation and Cognition, New York: Guilford Press; and William B. Swann Jr., J. Gregory Hixon, and Chris de la Ronde (1992), “Embracing the Bitter ‘Truth’: Negative Self-Concepts and Marital Commitment,” Psychological Science, 3, pp. 118–121.
24 We are not idly speculating here. In a classic experiment conducted half a century ago, social psychologist Judson Mills measured the attitudes of sixth-grade children toward cheating. He then had them participate in a competitive exam with prizes offered to the winners. He arranged the situation so that it was almost impossible for a child to win without cheating, and also so that it was easy for the children to cheat, thinking they would not be detected. (He was secretly keeping an eye on them.) About half the kids cheated and half did not. The next day, Mills asked the children again how they felt about cheating and other misdemeanors. Those children who had cheated became more lenient toward cheating, and those who resisted the temptation adopted a harsher attitude. See Judson Mills (1958), “Changes in Moral Attitudes Following Temptation,” Journal of Personality, 26, pp. 517–531.
25 Jeb Stuart Magruder (1974), An American Life: One Man’s Road to Watergate. New York: Atheneum. Haldeman’s comments, p. 4; the golf-cart story, p. 7.
26 Magruder, An American Life. Liddy’s first proposal with the “mugging squads,” p. 194 (the prostitutes would be “high-class,” Liddy assured the group, “only the best,” p. 195); “If [Liddy] had come to us at the outset p. 214; “decisions that now seem insane…,” “We were past the point of halfway measures,” p. 215.
27 The number of total participants is an informed estimate from psychologist Thomas Blass, who has written extensively about the original Milgram experiment and its many successors. About 800 people participated in Milgram’s own experiments; the rest were in replications or variations of the basic paradigm over a 25-year span.
28 The original study is described in Stanley Milgram (1963), “Behavioral Study of Obedience,” Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 67, pp. 371–378. Milgram reported his study in greater detail and with additional supporting research, including many replications, in his subsequent (1974) book, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View. New York: Harper & Row.
29 William Safire, “Aesop’s Fabled Fox,” The New York Times op-ed, December 29, 2003.
CHAPTER 2
Pride and Prejudice … and Other Blind Spots
1 James Bruggers, “Brain Damage Blamed on Solvent Use,” The [Louisville] Courier-Journal, May 13, 2001; Bruggers, “Researchers’ Ties to CSX Raise Concerns,” Courier-Journal, October 20, 2001; Carol Tavris (2002, July/August), “The High Cost of Skepticism,” Skeptical Inquirer, pp. 42–44; Stanley Berent (2002, November/December),