Net Force - Tom Clancy [114]
No, shed have to do this on her own.
She was not looking forward to it.
Thursday, October 7th, 8:56 p.m. Quantico
John Howard paced in his office while the computer put together yet another scenario for the theoretical snatch of the Russian programmer. So far, Howard had run five operation plans, with the computers estimates of their chances at success ranging from sixty-eight percent down to less than twelve percent. He did not like these numbers. Given his knowledge of ops out of the standard Strategy and Tactics modules, without at least an eighty-percent success estimate, people were likely to get hurt, maybe die. Could be the enemy lost troops, could be he did. The former was better than the latter, but in this particular combatsit, both were bad.
Sometimes you had to fight the battle, no matter what the odds, but he didnt like going in knowing he was going to lose people.
The big elements were stable, but the small variables were always the problem. The more of those he had information on, the better he could program the Op S&T mod, but-how to determine some of these? A straight-up fire-fight in a big field in the middle of nowhere was easy. But what, for instance, could you do to predict the traffic pattern on the streets of any large city during a covert operation? An unexpected wreck on a major artery during rush hour could cause a total stoppage; you had to figure on alternate routes, and you had to assume that if you wanted to take those routes, others caught in the jam would also want to use them. But even if you planned on a big truck overturning, how could you figure out where and when it might do so?
You could not, unless you put it there yourself.
If you reckoned on an assault during off-peak hours, early in the morning or in the middle of the night, say, that offered other problems to replace the ones you solved by choosing that option. Local police noticed activity in the middle of the night they might ignore during the day; if discovered, it was much harder to hide, and outrunning air pursuit on the ground for any distance was nearly impossible. They had helicopters everywhere now, even in countries where most of the population still lived in grass huts.
Plus, the snatch was only one element. A small unit, three or four troops, no more, would handle that. An escape route, preferably by air, would have to be arranged. Something that could fly fast enough to get away quickly, and yet stay under enemy radar while so doing, was necessary.
But if the operation went south? How many men were necessary for a backup team? Did the Net Force team want to begin a firefight with troops of a supposedly friendly nation? What were the repercussions of that?
Howard shook his head. It was a lot to chew on, and no matter how well he did it, he knew some bit would be missed. It might be small enough to pass through the system undigested. It might be just large enough to block a windpipe and choke him. There was a pleasant thought.
The computer chimed. The new op was done. Chance of success, fifty-four percent.
Might as well flip a coin for that one.
Computer, retain previous parameters, change operation begin-time to 2300 hours and run.
The computer chimed again and began cross-checking the op.
He paced again. It was probably all going to be moot. He did not have much confidence that Michaels would give the order to use military intervention in this situation. He had too many people to answer to higher up the chain of command, and they were all civilians. It was one thing to go into a foreign country with the locals knowing you were there but pretending you were not there, thus offering a tacit approval of your actions. It was another thing to put troops on foreign soil with the expressed disapproval of the locals. The Chechens had been touchy about such things since the Russians had invaded them years ago; they would not welcome an American StrikeForce team wandering around in their country, no matter how covert. If