The Post-American World - Fareed Zakaria [123]
Notes
2. The Cup Runneth Over
1. Ted Robert Gurr and Monty G. Marshall, Peace and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts, Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy, Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, College Park (June 2005).
2. Steven Pinker, “A Brief History of Violence” (talk at Technology, Entertainment, Design Conference, Monterey, Calif., March 2007).
3. Kevin H. O’Rourke, “The European Grain Invasion, 1870–1913,” Journal of Economic History 57, no. 4 (Dec. 1997): 775–801.
4. For a good, accessible discussion of the late nineteenth-century “positive supply shock,” see Gary Saxonhouse, “The Integration of Giants into the Global Economy,” AEI: Asian outlook, no. 1 (Jan. 31, 2006).
5. Michael Specter, “The Last Drop,” New Yorker, Oct. 23, 2006.
6. Larry O’Hanlon, “Arctic Ice Melt Gets Stark Reassessment,” Discovery News, Sept. 6, 2007, available at http://dsc.discovery.com/news/2007/09/06/arcticice_pla.html?category=earth.
7. Zbigniew Brzezinski, “The Dilemma of the Last Sovereign,” American Interest 1, no. 1 (Autumn 2005).
8. Benjamin Schwarz, review of Stephen E. Ambrose, The Good Fight, in Atlantic Monthly, June 2001, p. 103.
9. Naazneen Barma et al., “The World without the West,” National Interest, no. 90 (July/Aug. 2007): 23–30.
10. See a survey from the Economist on “The New Titans” in the Sept. 14, 2006, issue.
11. Jim O’Neill and Anna Stupnytska, The Long-term Outlook for the BRICs and N-11 Post Crisis (Goldman Sachs, Global Eonomics Paper no. 192, Dec. 4, 2009).
12. Thomas L. Friedman, The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century (New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2006), 226. Andy Grove’s statement is quoted in Clyde Prestowitz, Three Billion New Capitalists: The Great Shift of Wealth and Power to the East (New York: Basic Books, 2005), 8.
13. Gabor Steingart, The War for Wealth: Why Globalization Is Bleeding the West of Its Prosperity (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2008).
3. A Non-Western World?
1. The facts of Zheng He’s voyages come from a variety of sources, including Gavin Menzies, 1421: The Year China Discovered America (New York: Harper Perennial, 2004); David Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations (New York: W. W. Norton, 1999); and Kuei-Sheng Chang, “The Maritime Scene in China at the Dawn of Great European Discoveries,” Journal of the American Oriental Society 94, no. 3 (July–Sept. 1974): 347–59.
2. Kenneth Pomeranz, The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2000). Pomeranz dissents from the view that China was as backward as I describe. But Angus Maddison, William McNeil, and David Landes are better guides on this general topic, and Philip Huang (see below) effectively rebuts Pomeranz in great detail.
3. Quoted in Bernard Lewis, “The West and the Middle East,” Foreign Affairs 76, no. 1 (Jan./Feb. 1997): 114.
4. Daniel J. Boorstin, The Discoverers (New York: Vintage Books, 1985), 64. The work of David S. Landes, especially Revolution in Time: Clocks and the Making of the Modern World (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1983), also uses the development of the clock to contrast the attitudes toward innovation and technological change in Eastern and Western societies.
5. David S. Landes, “Why Europe and the West? Why Not China?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, no. 2 (Spring 2006): 18.
6. Philip C. C. Huang, “Development or Involution in Eighteenth-Century Britain and China?: A Review of Kenneth Pomeranz’s The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy,” Journal of Asian Studies 61, no. 2 (May 2002): 501–38.
7. Landes, “Why Europe and the West?,” 18.
8. Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (New York: Random House, 1987), 13.
9. J. M. Roberts,