The Rational Optimist_ How Prosperity Evolves - Matt Ridley [199]
p. 299 ‘Ames says’. Bruce Ames, personal communication.
p. 299 ‘sparing, targeted use of DDT against malarial mosquitoes can be done without any such threat to wildlife’. http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/bate200406030904.asp; http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10176.
p. 300 ‘says Greg Easterbrook’. Easterbrook, G. 2003. The Progress Paradox. Random House.
p. 300 ‘Lester Brown predicted’. Various sources for these Brown quotes, including Smil, V. 2000. Feeding the World. MIT Press, and Bailey, R. 2009. Never right, but never in doubt: famine-monger Lester Brown still gets it wrong after all these years. Reason magazine, 12 May 2009: http://reason.com/archives/2009/05/05/never-right-but-never-in-doubt. See also Brown, L. 2008. Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. Earth Policy Institute.
p. 301 ‘by William and Paul Paddock’. Paddock, W. and Paddock, P. 1967. Famine, 1975! America’s Decision: Who Will Survive? Little, Brown.
p. 301 ‘William Paddock was calling for a moratorium’. Paddock, William C. Address to the American Phytopathological Society, Houston, Texas 12 August 1975.
p. 301 ‘The Population Bomb’. Ehrlich, P. 1971. The Population Bomb. 2nd edition. Buccaneer.
p. 301 ‘The Dominant Animal’. Ehrlich, P. and Ehrlich, A. 2008. The Dominant Animal. Island Press.
p. 302 ‘wrote the economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1943’. Schumpeter, J.A. 1943. Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. Allen & Unwin.
p. 302 ‘Limits to Growth’. It should be noted that the authors of Limits to Growth have argued since that they only wished to illustrate what might happen if exponential use continued and no new reserves of these minerals were discovered, which they realised was unlikely. But this is a highly generous reading of both their mathematics and their prose. ‘There will be a desperate arable land shortage before the year 2000’ and ‘The world population will be 7 billion in 2000’ sound like predictions to me. Even in more recent updates, the main prognosis remains that civilisation will – or should – collapse for lack of resources in the current century: ‘Humanity must draw back, ease down, and heal if it wants to continue to live.’ See Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L. and Randers, J. 1992. Beyond the Limits. Chelsea Green Publishing; and Meadows, D.H., Randers, J. and Meadows, D. 2004. Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update. Chelsea Green Publishing.
p. 303 ‘school textbooks soon parroting its predictions minus the caveats’. See Bailey, R. 2004. science and public policy. Reason: http://www.reason.com/news/show/34758.html.
p. 303 ‘In 1990 the economist Julian Simon won $576.07 in settlement of a wager’. Simon, J. 1996. The Ultimate Resource 2. Princeton University Press.
p. 304 ‘Life magazine promised its readers’. Quoted in http://www.ihate themedia.com/earth-day-predictions-of-1970-the-reason-you-should-not-believe-earth-day-predictions-of-2009.
p. 304 ‘Professor Bernd Ulrich said it was already too late for Germany’s forests’. Mauch, C. 2004. Nature in German History. Berghahn Books.
p. 305 ‘The New York Times declared “a scientific consensus”’. Easterbrook, G. 1995. A Moment on the Earth. Penguin. See also Fortune magazine, April 1986.
p. 305 ‘When asked if he had been pressured to be optimistic, one of the authors said the reverse was true’. Mathiesen, M. 2004. Global Warming in a Politically Correct Climate. Universe Star.
p. 306 ‘The activist Jeremy Rifkin said’. Miller, H.I. 2009. The human cost of anti-science activism. Policy Review, April/May 2009. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/41839562.html.
p. 307 ‘Ebola outbreaks’. Colebunders, R. 2000. Ebola haemorrhagic fever – a review. Journal of Infection 40:16–20.
pp. 307–8 ‘The proportion of the population infected with HIV is falling’. http://data.unaids.org/pub/GlobalReport/2008/JC1511_GR08_ExecutiveSummary_en.pdf.
p. 308 ‘Hugh Pennington’. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/573919.stm.
p. 308 ‘the number of deaths has reached