The Two Koreas_ A Contemporary History - Don Oberdorfer [249]
Nonetheless, the impact of the outside powers continues to be extensive. With the end of the cold war, the relationships among Russia, China, Japan, and the United States have been realigned, and their objectives on the Korean peninsula have shifted from furtherance of the status quo to more complex and flexible notions of national interest. The influence of Japan, although substantial, is less formidable today than in the pre-World War II era. Post-communist Russia has, probably only temporarily, lost much of its clout. China remains a vitally important factor in the calculus of both North and South, due to its proximity and its rising power. It kept North Korea on life support with food and fuel in its hour of peril, and is now providing a crucial connection in the DPRK's quest for economic renewal. China continues to exert a powerful influence on the future of the ROK.
The United States, however, continues to be the most important outside power in Korean affairs, maintaining a formidable troop presence on the peninsula, exerting a major influence on South Korean political and economic life, and continuing to be the most important negotiating target for North Korea. Yet while the United States has a large stake in the future of the peninsula, the uncertain nature of its policies toward the DPRK has diminished its effectiveness as the two Koreas move into a new relationship.
When I finished the first edition of this book in 1997, it seemed to me that the North Korean regime was unlikely to survive in its existing form without major changes, which I did not see as likely. Today, in the new century, Kim Jong Il has emerged from the shadows to show himself to be a more able and more flexible leader than he was in the first years after his father's death. He has done much more, more quickly and more smoothly, to take advantage of his opportunities than anyone had guessed. The prospects for survival of the DPRK appear to have improved, but they remain guarded due to its economic collapse, from which a return to health is problematic.
The experiences of former communist states in the post-cold war era suggest it is exceedingly difficult, although not impossible, to make the change from a centrally directed economy to some form of a market economy, even a guided market economy, which can thrive in the contemporary world. China has done it, although daunting problems remain, but other states have done less well. It is equally difficult, if not even more difficult, to convert a dictatorship to a stable political system resting on the foundation of the consent of the governed. Historically, North Korea is an extremely negative example, in both economic and political realms.
South Korea, despite many unresolved problems, continues to have a bright future at the dawn of the new century. Its industrious, well-educated people, who have been open to the rest of the world while North Korea has remained closed, have thrown off the authoritarian rule of military-led regimes and created a fractious but effective democracy. In spite of economic difficulties, the South continues to be a bustling factory producing a substantial portion of the world's ships, automobiles, electronics, and other goods, lifting most of its people to a living standard far above their previous bare-subsistence level. Among the many uncertainties of the peninsula's next stage is how the South will be affected by new decisions in the North. As of now, Seoul has opted decisively for cooperation rather than confrontation with Pyongyang in an effort to avoid a crisis of any sort.
While much has changed on the peninsula in the period covered by this account, one thing that will never change is its geography. Korea sits at the vital center of Northeast Asia, one of the world's most strategically important and dynamic regions. It is surrounded by three great powers, China, Japan, and Russia. No longer a passive factor in regional and world affairs, Koreans north and south will have an important impact on their neighbors and on the international scene in the