Tom Clancy's op-center_ acts of war - Tom Clancy [74]
"Seventy-four degrees, northwest winds, red sunset," he repeated.
"Correct."
"Hold on," Hood said.
He reached into his small carrying case and removed the red-tabbed diskette from its pocket. That already told him that things weren't good. The situation somewhere was code red. After booting the diskette, Hood carefully typed in the code 74NW on the computer. The machine hummed for several seconds, then asked for Hood's authorization code. He punched in PASHA, which stood for Paul, Alexander, Sharon, Harleigh, and Ann--his mother's name--and then he waited again.
The screen went from blue to red. He clicked the mouse on the white letters OP in the upper left corner.
"Warner," Hood said as the file opened, "I think you'd better have a look at this as well."
Bicking leaned over as Hood began scrolling through the file:
Op-Center Projection 74NW/Red
1. Subject: First-Stage Syrian Response to Turkish Mobilization.
2. Provocation Scenario: Syrian and Turkish Kurds jointly strike inside Turkey.
3. Response Scenario: Turkey moves five-six hundred thousand troops to Syrian border to prevent further incursions. (Access 75NW/Red for larger Turkish response.)
4. Result: Syria mobilizes.
5. Likely Composition of Syrian Force: Available manpower is 300,000, distributed between Syrian Army, Syrian Navy, Syrian Air Force, and Syrian Air Defense Forces. Police and Security Forces consisting of 2,000 troops would be assigned to defend Damascus and the President. Additional conscripts would be culled from workforce within the first three days of mobilization. Total additional force of 100,000 wen between the ages of 15-49 would be fielded within two weeks. Inadequately trained, the conscripts would probably suffer casualties of 40-45% within the next two weeks. Syria would be betting on the fact that wars in the region tend to be brief.
6. Turkish Diplomatic Efforts: Intensive. Would not want war.
7. Syrian Diplomatic Efforts: Moderate. Given highly secular Turkish government, Syria's ninety% Muslim population (11.3 million of 13 million) would accept a conflagration as a jihad or holy war.
8. Time Frame for Initial Conflict: Given an emotionally charged environment created by terrorist activities, there is an 88% chance that hostilities would occur within the first forty-eight hours. As reactions cool, there is a 7% chance that hostilities would occur in the next twenty-four hours and a 5% chance that hostilities would occur thereafter.
9. First Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will not want to be the aggressor for fear of triggering Greek response. However, current policy permits the pursuit of terrorists by strike force if "the nature of the crime is of such a nature to warrant pursuit. (Access Turkish Military White Papers 1995-1997, file 566-05/Green.) To discourage internal discord resulting from inactivity or perceived weakness, a measured Turkish response is deemed extremely likely. Syrian response to a Turkish incursion will be swift and absolute. A multi-force retaliation is likely within and without Syrian borders. (Access Syrian Military White Papers 1995-1997, file 566-87/Green.)
10. Second Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will attack any Syrian troops within its borders but almost certainly will not move into Syria. That would surely arouse Muslims living within Turkey. At that point, both sides will have shown sufficient muscle to withdraw and stand only to lose from further hostilities. Diplomatic efforts will intensify and are considered likely to prevail. The small uncertainty factor will be influenced largely by concomitant response from neighboring nations (see 11., below).
11. Projected Response from Surrounding Countries: It is expected that all nations in the region will assume some form of defensive military posture. Several are likely to take offensive steps.
A. Armenia: The government will support Turkey unless Turkey supports Azerbaijan. In either case, a military response is unlikely against any target but Azerbaijan. Government security forces will watch the Kurdish minority