Tom Clancy's op-center_ acts of war - Tom Clancy [75]
B. Bulgaria: Of the 210,000 active soldiers, only the Frontier Troops are likely to be mobilized. The population is 8.5% Turkish. There is no reason why Turkish forces should cross the border. Unless they do so, the Bulgarian troops will avoid confrontations.
C. Georgia: The government will back Turkey but make no military gestures.
D. Greece: Mediterranean patrols by the Hellenic Navy will be increased. Confrontations may erupt if Turkish patrols are encountered. If a second wave of hostilities erupts between Turkey And Syria, Greece will most likely remain neutral while moving against Aegean territory claimed by both Ankara and Athens. (Access Imia Islet file, 645/E/Red.)
E. Iran: Iran will almost certainly remain militarily inactive. Fifth column activity will certainly increase.
F. Iraq: During any first-wave hostilities, Baghdad will increase attacks on Iraqi Kurds to prevent them from joining with Turkish and Syrian Kurds. During a second wave, Baghdad may seek to press old claims against Kuwait. (Access Wadi al Batin file 335/NW/Red.)
G. Israel: Israel's partnership with Turkey covers only mutual military maneuvers. It is not a mutual defense pact, though Israeli intelligence resources will be placed at Turkey's disposal. If a second wave of hostilities erupts, Israel may agree to flying limited sorties.
H. Jordan: Jordan exercises joint air force maneuvers with Israel. While they would remain neutral in an Israeli war with Arabs, they will join a Turkish war against Syria if the United States permits them to.
Hood cleared the screen. "Any chances the weather will change again?" he asked Martha.
"It looks like the front at 11F-Frank is not happening," she replied.
Hood scrolled back. He repeated what Martha had said for Bicking's benefit. Iraq hadn't moved against the Kurds, but he knew that wouldn't last. Recent intelligence reports put the Iraqi military at over two million strong. Many of those men were young newcomers, untested in battle and probably scared. Others were veterans, many of them itching to avenge their humiliation during the Persian Gulf War.
"We're also thinking that 11D-David and 11G-George may move in sooner than expected," Martha said.
Hood was not surprised by either of those. With elections coming up, the Greek President needed to do something blazingly patriotic to win the right wing. Taking long-disputed lands from an embattled Turkey would accomplish that. As for Israel, the hardline government would love the opportunity to strike at an enemy under the auspices of defending an ally.
"What're things like on the home, front?" Hood asked.
"The meteorologists are watching and talking," Martha said. "A few picnics have been called off in the area, but only one umbrella has been broken out."
That meant military leave in the region had been canceled and U.S. troops were on a low-level Defcon One alert.
"I'll keep you up to date," Martha said, "but I can tell you there are a lot of long faces at the weather headquarters."
The weather headquarters was the White House. "They're worried about storms, I'm sure," Hood said, "and they'll probably get a few."
"They can live with a few," Martha said. "It's a big one they're worried about."
Hood thanked her and hung up. He turned to Bicking. The spindly twenty-nine-year-old was a former associate professor of social sciences at Georgetown University. His area of expertise was Political Islam, and he was one of four political experts recently added to the Op-Center team to advise Paul Hood on foreign affairs.
"What's your take on this?" Hood asked.
Biking twirled a longish lock of black hair around his index finger. It was a habit he had whenever he was thinking. "There's a very, very good chance that it'll all blow up. And when it does, it could well drag the rest of the world along with it. From Turkey it can move up through Greece and Bulgaria into Romania and