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omission,” Diabetes Care 33 (2010), pp. 240–245; Susan Mackie, “The value of DNKs,” NEJM 362 (2010), p. 1561; Stephen Smith, “Take as directed,” Boston Globe, May 10, 2010; Nancy Houston Miller, “Compliance with treatment regimens in chronic asymptomatic diseases,” American Journal of Medicine 102 (1997), pp. 43–49; Joyce A. Cramer, “Compliance with contraceptives and other treatments,” Obstetrics & Gynecology 88 (1996), pp. 4S–12S. For women prescribed bisphosphonates, calcium, and vitamin D: Pierre D. Delmas et al., “Effect of monitoring bone turnover markers on persistence with risedronate treatment of postmenopausal osteoporosis,” Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism 92 (2007), pp. 1296–1304; Ethel S. Siris et al., “Adherence to bisphosphonate therapy, vitamin D and calcium supplements and fracture rates in osteoporotic women: Relationship to vertebral and nonvertebral fractures from 2 U.S. claims databases,” Mayo Clinic Proceedings 81 (2006), pp. 1013–1022; Enkhe Badamgarav, Lorraine A. Fitzpatric, “A new look at osteoporosis outcomes: The influence of treatment, compliance, persistence, and adherence,” Mayo Clinic Proceedings 81 (2006), pp. 1009–1012; National Community Pharmacists Association, “Enhancing prescription medicine adherence: A national action plan,” National Council on Patient Information and Education, Rockville, MD, August 2007, p. 7; Katherine Hobson, “How can you help the medicine go down? Too many people don’t take the drugs they’re supposed to: Tackling that problem could save a lot of money and a lot of lives,” Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2011.

13 The availability bias is elegantly described in Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman, “The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice,” Science 211 (1981), pp. 453–458.

14 The bias in favor of natural approaches is found in Gretchen B. Chapman, “The psychology of medical decision making ,” in D. J. Koehler and N. Harvey (eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing, 2004), pp. 585–603.

15 Loss aversion is described by Daniel Kahneman, Jack L. Knetsch, Richard H. Thaler, “The endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5 (1991), pp. 193–206. Also see Dan Ariely’s lively discussion of loss aversion in Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (New York : HarperCollins, 2008).

17 There are different risk calculators for heart attack; a reliable site that helped give Susan Powell understandable numbers: United States Department of Health and Human Services/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, “Health Information for the Public,” http://www.nhlbi.nih.gov/health.

18 The importance of calculating the “number needed to treat” is found in Steven Woloshin, Lisa M. Schwartz, H. Gilbert Welch, Know Your Chances: Understanding Health Statistics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2008). For more extensive commentary on the interpretation of number needed to treat, see Finlay A. McAlister et al., “Users’ guides to the medical literature. Integrating research evidence with the care of the individual patient,” JAMA 283 (2000), pp. 2829–2836; Finlay A. McAlister, “The ‘number needed to treat’ turns 20—and continues to be used and misused,” CMAJ 179 (2008), pp. 549–553; Christopher A. K. Y. Chong et al., “An unadjusted NNT was a moderately good predictor of health benefit,” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 59 (2006), pp. 224–233; Peder Andreas Halvorsen, Ivar Sonbo Kristiansen, “Decisions on drug therapies by numbers needed to treat: A randomized trial,” Archives of Internal Medicine 165 (2005), pp. 1140–1146; J. Nexoe, I. S. Kristiansen, D. Gyrd-Hansen, J. B. Nielsen, “Influence of number needed to treat, costs and outcome on preferences for a preventive drug,” Family Practice 22 (2005), pp. 126–131; Arthur Marx, Heiner C. Bucher, “Numbers needed to treat derived from meta-analysis: A word of caution,” Evidence-Based Medicine 8 (2003), pp. 36–37; Lonne Wen, Robert Badgett, John Cornell, “Number needed to treat: A descriptor