The Believing Brain - Michael Shermer [199]
9. Baruch Fischhoff, “For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Heuristics and Biases in Hindsight,” in Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982), 335–51.
10. John C. Zimmerman, “Pearl Harbor Revisionism,” Intelligence and National Security 17, no. 2 (2002): 127–46.
11. Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2005).
12. Geoffrey Cohen, “Party Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85 (2003): 808–82.
13. In Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson, Mistakes Were Made (But Not by Me): Why We Justify Foolish Beliefs, Bad Decisions, and Hurtful Acts (New York: Mariner Books, 2008), 130–32. See also the Innocence Project, http://www.innocenceproject.org/.
14. M. Ross and F. Sicoly, “Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979): 322–36; R. M. Arkin, H. Cooper, and T. Kolditz, “A Statistical Review of the Literature Concerning the Self-serving Bias in Interpersonal Influence Situations,” Journal of Personality 48 (1980): 435–48; M. H. Davis and W. G. Stephan, “Attributions for Exam Performance,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology 10 (1980): 235–48. For a general summary of the attribution bias see Carol Tavris and Carole Wade, Psychology in Perspective, 2nd ed. (New York: Longman/Addison Wesley, 1997).
15. R. E. Nisbett and L. Ross, Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1980).
16. Preliminary results of our study were originally published in Shermer, How We Believe.
17. The full data set and analysis will be published in Michael Shermer and Frank J. Sulloway, “Religion and Belief in God: An Empirical Study.” In preparation.
18. Lisa Farwell and Bernard Weiner, “Bleeding Hearts and the Heartless: Popular Perceptions of Liberal and Conservative Ideologies,” Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 26, no. 7 (2000): 845–52.
19. Costs, deaths, casualties of Iraq war: “Home and Away: Iraq and Afghanistan War Casualties,” CNN, http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/iraq/forces/casualties/; Bush quote: http://mediamatters.org/research/200612220015.
20. William Samuelson and Richard Zeckhauser, “Status Quo Bias in Decision Making,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1 (1988): 7–59.
21. Samuelson and Zeckhauser, “Status Quo Bias in Decision Making”; Daniel Kahneman, J. L. Knetsch, and Richard H. Thaler, “Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, no. 1 (1991): 193–206; E. J. Johnson, J. Hershey, J. Meszaros, and H. Kunreuther, “Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 7 (1993): 35–51.
22. Richard Thaler, Daniel Kahneman, and Jack Knetsch, “Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coarse Theorem,” Journal of Political Economy, December 1990, 1325–48.
23. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice,” Science 211 (1981): 453–58; Tversky and Kahneman, “Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions,” Journal of Business 59, no. 4 (1986): 2; B. De Martino, D. Kumaran, B. Seymour, and R. S. Dolan, “Frames, Biases, and Rational Decision-Making in the Human Brain,” Science 313 (2006): 684–87.
24. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability,” Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 207–32.
25. B. Combs and P. Slovic, “Newspaper Coverage of Causes of Death,” Journalism Quarterly 56 (1979): 837–43.
26. Barry Glassner, The Culture of Fear: Why Americans Are Afraid of the Wrong Things (New York: BasicBooks, 1999).
27. Amos